{ "ticker": { "uuid": "250a191e-0e42-4a4e-acdb-9ef48ba704fa", "symbol": "00865B", "name": "Cathay US Short Term Treasury ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.087, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.338, "architecture_energy": 88.338, "architecture_maturity": 14.0, "architecture_confidence": 66.663, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.54, "rotation_up": 81.12, "upward_expansion": 97.64, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 8.19, "downward_expansion": 21.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.373333, 49.066909, 48.619143, 48.407634 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 49.32, "trend_reference": 48.117, "distance_from_trend": 0.025002, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.72, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07874, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.820237, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.04403, "excess_performance": -0.335281, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025002, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014171, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07874, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021557, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.238202, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079382, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.04403, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.346001, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13993469, "relative_activity": 1.002675, "balance": 4.346001, "dry_up": 1.363475, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006519, "annualized_volatility": 0.040351, "from_high_reference": -0.005846, "from_low_reference": 0.119891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.117, "fair_value_reference": 45.72, "structural_low": 47.080002, "invalidation": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 49.25, "volume": 20515518, "typical_volume": 12829102.5, "trend": 47.898, "fair_value": 45.573654, "relative_strength": -23.376119, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.705474, "energy": 95.115198, "activity_lines": [ 48.866, 48.529454, 48.278762, 48.123376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.41, "volume": 22241536, "typical_volume": 13384671.95, "trend": 47.967667, "fair_value": 45.625897, "relative_strength": -24.160456, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.806591, "energy": 95.017451, "activity_lines": [ 49.111333, 48.731636, 48.396762, 48.220925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 49.59, "volume": 19364823, "typical_volume": 13785969.3, "trend": 48.048333, "fair_value": 45.674551, "relative_strength": -22.23238, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.122807, "energy": 95.051536, "activity_lines": [ 49.324667, 48.938545, 48.52419, 48.325591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 49.32, "volume": 13993469, "typical_volume": 13956135.45, "trend": 48.117, "fair_value": 45.72, "relative_strength": -23.820237, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.337561, "energy": 88.338002, "activity_lines": [ 49.373333, 49.066909, 48.619143, 48.407634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }