{ "ticker": { "uuid": "250f2f05-f7d1-46ce-9592-d6c9ed624c8e", "symbol": "002939", "name": "China Great Wall Securities Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.167, "architecture_energy": 35.685, "architecture_maturity": 87.925, "architecture_confidence": 78.546, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.81, "rotation_up": 25.88, "upward_expansion": 4.64, "deceleration": 59.92, "rotation_down": 42.28, "downward_expansion": 75.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.160986, 8.166116, 8.353711, 8.581338 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 8.13, "trend_reference": 8.947343, "distance_from_trend": -0.09135, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.389323, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.030911, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.016681, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.174619, "excess_performance": -0.182019, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09135, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07294, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.030911, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10912, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200167, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044857, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.544968, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 113111227, "relative_activity": 1.000325, "balance": 1.544968, "dry_up": 1.064577, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06079, "annualized_volatility": 0.182997, "from_high_reference": -0.417767, "from_low_reference": 0.03699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.947343, "fair_value_reference": 8.389323, "structural_low": 7.84, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.017857, "positive_rate": 0.612903, "directional_follow_through": 0.387097, "median_excess_return": 0.017091, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.327103, "worst_return": -0.224708, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.048915, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.036887, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.371852, "worst_return": -0.173913, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.045292, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.055839, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.546735, "worst_return": -0.154534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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-71.095955, "energy": 53.532827, "activity_lines": [ 8.17055, 8.278603, 8.55511, 8.82825 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.061306, "volume": 109185968, "typical_volume": 110664414.4, "trend": 9.147343, "fair_value": 8.381813, "relative_strength": -18.595946, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.053011, "energy": 49.260303, "activity_lines": [ 8.128387, 8.208132, 8.484477, 8.753942 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.12, "volume": 152884678, "typical_volume": 111728517.9, "trend": 9.081676, "fair_value": 8.38407, "relative_strength": -17.960748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.831157, "energy": 43.954861, "activity_lines": [ 8.115034, 8.165763, 8.428237, 8.687662 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.32, "volume": 106324122, "typical_volume": 112945922.85, "trend": 9.016343, "fair_value": 8.387306, "relative_strength": -14.262377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.505184, "energy": 39.12391, "activity_lines": [ 8.175015, 8.17903, 8.397474, 8.638521 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.13, "volume": 113111227, "typical_volume": 113074508.2, "trend": 8.947343, "fair_value": 8.389323, "relative_strength": -20.016681, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.166873, "energy": 35.685034, "activity_lines": [ 8.160986, 8.166116, 8.353711, 8.581338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }