{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25259b7d-e87a-4678-b89f-a397b9d580b2", "symbol": "PTC", "name": "Premier Tank Corporation Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.6, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.685, "architecture_energy": 42.926, "architecture_maturity": 30.628, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.89, "rotation_up": 16.17, "upward_expansion": 10.82, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 59.03, "downward_expansion": 84.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.574667, 0.582, 0.586571, 0.588863 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.57, "trend_reference": 0.589361, "distance_from_trend": -0.032851, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.154568, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.506309, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.365399, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.016949, "excess_performance": -0.175376, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.032851, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031276, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.506309, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009101, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.253654, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03119, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016949, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.289862, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 401000, "relative_activity": 1.026783, "balance": 0.289862, "dry_up": 1.170559, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067476, "annualized_volatility": 0.251, "from_high_reference": -0.420339, "from_low_reference": 0.093699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.589361, "fair_value_reference": 1.154568, "structural_low": 0.531, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.041453, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.05909, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.016949, "worst_return": -0.127907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.188889, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.167099, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.065574, "worst_return": -0.294872, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.355556, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.196252, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.066667, "worst_return": -0.382894, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.419273, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.518326, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.355932, "worst_return": -0.482615, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.130435, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-02-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015228, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068809, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055276, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.132184, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.167785, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08284, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057692, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.312586, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.065574, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.637763, "volume": 808400, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, 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after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.071861, "energy": 4.492091, "activity_lines": [ 0.596, 0.593455, 0.594047, 0.593552 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.59, "volume": 1148000, "typical_volume": 359375.0, "trend": 0.593983, "fair_value": 1.183733, "relative_strength": -27.651123, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.42252, "energy": 1.929131, "activity_lines": [ 0.594, 0.593091, 0.593525, 0.593316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.58, "volume": 470300, "typical_volume": 368390.0, "trend": 0.592994, "fair_value": 1.176314, "relative_strength": -28.441469, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.112036, "energy": 20.577844, "activity_lines": [ 0.588667, 0.590909, 0.592097, 0.592414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.58, "volume": 564400, "typical_volume": 379680.0, "trend": 0.592006, "fair_value": 1.169069, "relative_strength": -27.590505, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.820948, "energy": 25.800309, "activity_lines": [ 0.585333, 0.589273, 0.590857, 0.591575 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.57, "volume": 392900, "typical_volume": 376080.0, "trend": 0.590028, "fair_value": 1.161587, "relative_strength": -26.952503, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.369948, "energy": 26.727091, "activity_lines": [ 0.579333, 0.585455, 0.588619, 0.590156 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.57, "volume": 401000, "typical_volume": 390540.0, "trend": 0.589361, "fair_value": 1.154568, "relative_strength": -25.365399, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.684942, "energy": 42.926071, "activity_lines": [ 0.574667, 0.582, 0.586571, 0.588863 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }