{ "ticker": { "uuid": "252ccf44-f6ee-481c-be9b-a240dbc93a99", "symbol": "200761", "name": "Bengang Steel Plates Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.654, "architecture_energy": 50.481, "architecture_maturity": 89.329, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.47, "rotation_up": 27.93, "upward_expansion": 22.27, "deceleration": 46.04, "rotation_down": 42.74, "downward_expansion": 72.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.872, 0.863273, 0.905143, 0.974452 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.89, "trend_reference": 1.060333, "distance_from_trend": -0.160641, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.34359, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.337595, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -25.438861, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.288, "excess_performance": -0.2954, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.160641, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099122, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.337595, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039381, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254389, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102986, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.288, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.439036, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1294400, "relative_activity": 0.571953, "balance": 0.439036, "dry_up": 0.764994, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057908, "annualized_volatility": 0.273886, "from_high_reference": -0.355072, "from_low_reference": 0.126582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.060333, "fair_value_reference": 1.34359, "structural_low": 0.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.011988, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.013601, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.275, "worst_return": -0.201754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.056911, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.042118, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.25768, "worst_return": -0.254098, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.003704, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.059512, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.122709, "worst_return": -0.277778, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091503, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.105634, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.056911, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.059701, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.796134, "energy": 67.546918, "activity_lines": [ 0.835333, 0.859091, 0.942476, 1.013441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.87, "volume": 1894764, "typical_volume": 2425015.85, "trend": 1.081667, "fair_value": 1.355577, "relative_strength": -26.095865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.167671, "energy": 63.427274, "activity_lines": [ 0.844667, 0.857273, 0.927238, 0.99914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.88, "volume": 1816900, "typical_volume": 2360155.85, "trend": 1.071, "fair_value": 1.349487, "relative_strength": -23.277995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.150616, "energy": 55.888561, "activity_lines": [ 0.859333, 0.859091, 0.914762, 0.986129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.89, "volume": 1294400, "typical_volume": 2263122.9, "trend": 1.060333, "fair_value": 1.34359, "relative_strength": -25.438861, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.654067, "energy": 50.481022, "activity_lines": [ 0.872, 0.863273, 0.905143, 0.974452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }