{ "ticker": { "uuid": "252ed3ae-aa21-45dd-9ea1-e1938f36f2b6", "symbol": "301489", "name": "GuangDong Suqun New Material Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.044, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -38.437, "architecture_energy": 67.907, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.12, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.55, "rotation_up": 18.73, "upward_expansion": 25.58, "deceleration": 40.32, "rotation_down": 71.82, "downward_expansion": 62.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 105.034, 125.210183, 140.857059, 141.179191 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 102.5, "trend_reference": 138.883561, "distance_from_trend": -0.261972, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 73.365055, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.397123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.897587, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.114611, "excess_performance": -0.122011, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.261972, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013891, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.397123, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.157723, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.288976, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.535851, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.114611, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.439941, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29105063, "relative_activity": 1.186916, "balance": 0.439941, "dry_up": 1.308781, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.252091, "annualized_volatility": 0.809825, "from_high_reference": -0.507942, "from_low_reference": 0.281669 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 138.883561, "fair_value_reference": 73.365055, "structural_low": 83.330002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.167048, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.140151, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.167048, "worst_return": 0.167048, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.535955, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.416974, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.535955, "worst_return": 0.535955, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.163159, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028745, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 2.34177, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.122132, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": 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64.733354, "activity_lines": [ 113.029334, 132.540365, 145.056715, 143.61148 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.5, "volume": 29105063, "typical_volume": 24521582.25, "trend": 138.883561, "fair_value": 73.365055, "relative_strength": -28.897587, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.437125, "energy": 67.906545, "activity_lines": [ 105.034, 125.210183, 140.857059, 141.179191 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }