{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2531d5d3-9ef6-459e-8f46-359f6077177a", "symbol": "2471", "name": "Ares International Corp.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 59.478, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 34.712, "architecture_energy": 14.979, "architecture_maturity": 66.836, "architecture_confidence": 77.182, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.75, "rotation_up": 33.15, "upward_expansion": 49.59, "deceleration": 80.65, "rotation_down": 32.88, "downward_expansion": 29.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.953393, 49.089448, 49.038244, 48.919952 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 50.099998, "trend_reference": 48.746981, "distance_from_trend": 0.027756, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.628643, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051888, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.780142, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.075535, "excess_performance": -0.365837, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027756, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017316, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051888, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074842, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.257801, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100253, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.075535, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.939478, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 746200, "relative_activity": 0.654624, "balance": 2.939478, "dry_up": 0.859085, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043552, "annualized_volatility": 0.211818, "from_high_reference": -0.047903, "from_low_reference": 0.138465 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.746981, "fair_value_reference": 47.628643, "structural_low": 44.006609, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.004673, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.025157, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.202811, "worst_return": -0.081481, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001677, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.122975, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.516484, "worst_return": -0.063255, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.070382, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.14663, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.322344, "worst_return": 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"typical_volume": 1197296.8, "trend": 48.584684, "fair_value": 47.59255, "relative_strength": -26.250851, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.716943, "energy": 10.896179, "activity_lines": [ 48.726222, 49.085365, 48.973411, 48.83711 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.400002, "volume": 451251, "typical_volume": 1141001.9, "trend": 48.631257, "fair_value": 47.593606, "relative_strength": -26.659325, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.921327, "energy": 8.67875, "activity_lines": [ 48.487569, 48.937902, 48.920623, 48.825195 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 50.099998, "volume": 746200, "typical_volume": 1139891.0, "trend": 48.746981, "fair_value": 47.628643, "relative_strength": -25.780142, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.711869, "energy": 14.979198, "activity_lines": [ 48.953393, 49.089448, 49.038244, 48.919952 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }