{ "ticker": { "uuid": "253439cb-6ca7-4e41-96fa-14b40aae69a6", "symbol": "002226", "name": "Anhui Jiangnan Chemical Industry Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.681, "architecture_energy": 24.543, "architecture_maturity": 93.297, "architecture_confidence": 77.69, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.62, "rotation_up": 26.89, "upward_expansion": 15.52, "deceleration": 46.87, "rotation_down": 29.81, "downward_expansion": 63.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.848, 4.745037, 4.941322, 5.155458 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.07, "trend_reference": 5.445568, "distance_from_trend": -0.068968, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.199217, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.024853, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.710321, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.182258, "excess_performance": -0.189658, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068968, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080296, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.024853, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071589, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167103, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095938, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.182258, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.062286, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 125912399, "relative_activity": 1.120187, "balance": 3.062286, "dry_up": 0.989824, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.088034, "annualized_volatility": 0.361997, "from_high_reference": -0.295833, "from_low_reference": 0.168993 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.445568, "fair_value_reference": 5.199217, "structural_low": 4.337066, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.012903, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 1.7e-05, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.159369, "worst_return": -0.145996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.00465, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.014919, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.3837, "worst_return": -0.154639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.009313, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.020212, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.361261, "worst_return": -0.203883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.832432, "energy": 72.389716, "activity_lines": [ 4.538459, 4.717604, 5.036946, 5.274644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.63, "volume": 116109213, "typical_volume": 122531436.45, "trend": 5.502235, "fair_value": 5.199268, "relative_strength": -22.349107, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.442767, "energy": 53.530117, "activity_lines": [ 4.558725, 4.66093, 4.97296, 5.215618 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.97, "volume": 116266469, "typical_volume": 114097546.85, "trend": 5.470235, "fair_value": 5.198985, "relative_strength": -14.739017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.760305, "energy": 38.334087, "activity_lines": [ 4.707467, 4.685347, 4.949213, 5.18128 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.07, "volume": 125912399, "typical_volume": 112403057.5, "trend": 5.445568, "fair_value": 5.199217, "relative_strength": -16.710321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.680766, "energy": 24.543227, "activity_lines": [ 4.848, 4.745037, 4.941322, 5.155458 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }