{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2537bfd4-539d-4988-b21a-ad21709f7315", "symbol": "CMX", "name": "Catalyst Media Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.018, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.73, "architecture_energy": 18.752, "architecture_maturity": 87.466, "architecture_confidence": 72.679, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.36, "rotation_up": 32.38, "upward_expansion": 32.0, "deceleration": 44.5, "rotation_down": 29.38, "downward_expansion": 51.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.5, 43.454545, 43.142857, 44.150538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 42.5, "trend_reference": 46.166667, "distance_from_trend": -0.079422, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 75.135101, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.434352, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.259304, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.227273, "excess_performance": -0.278508, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.079422, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036522, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.434352, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061376, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.182593, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024659, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.227273, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.065359, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 685, "relative_activity": 0.147628, "balance": 0.065359, "dry_up": 2.194588, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032308, "annualized_volatility": 0.280976, "from_high_reference": -0.291667, "from_low_reference": 0.0625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 46.166667, "fair_value_reference": 75.135101, "structural_low": 40.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.024472, "regime_survival": 0.85, "best_return": 0.214286, "worst_return": -0.263158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007174, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.027579, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.215686, "worst_return": -0.269231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.192308, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.260378, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.105263, "worst_return": -0.253622, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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43.25, 45.053763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 45.0, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 3609.3, "trend": 47.0, "fair_value": 77.755006, "relative_strength": -13.251869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.12915, "energy": 68.331773, "activity_lines": [ 43.333333, 42.954545, 43.27381, 44.919355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.0, "volume": 1797, "typical_volume": 3699.15, "trend": 46.833333, "fair_value": 77.068067, "relative_strength": -13.358589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.429965, "energy": 29.719349, "activity_lines": [ 44.0, 43.363636, 43.321429, 44.790323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 3699.15, "trend": 46.666667, "fair_value": 76.381128, "relative_strength": -13.70834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.499509, "energy": 35.078059, "activity_lines": [ 44.5, 43.727273, 43.392857, 44.672043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.5, "volume": 38250, "typical_volume": 5611.65, "trend": 46.416667, "fair_value": 75.758115, "relative_strength": -18.720997, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.648204, "energy": 29.20099, "activity_lines": [ 44.0, 43.590909, 43.25, 44.403226 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.5, "volume": 685, "typical_volume": 4640.05, "trend": 46.166667, "fair_value": 75.135101, "relative_strength": -18.259304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.730269, "energy": 18.752336, "activity_lines": [ 43.5, 43.454545, 43.142857, 44.150538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }