{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2538d247-8cfe-4a2f-bfb0-35f90247835d", "symbol": "ORLY", "name": "O'Reilly Automotive, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.589, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -14.189, "architecture_energy": 7.813, "architecture_maturity": 15.926, "architecture_confidence": 42.877, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.64, "rotation_up": 28.76, "upward_expansion": 20.91, "deceleration": 38.59, "rotation_down": 25.93, "downward_expansion": 54.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.699332, 77.362181, 77.682428, 78.134387 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 80.279999, "trend_reference": 78.907667, "distance_from_trend": 0.017392, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 74.017201, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.084613, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.501031, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.034003, "excess_performance": -0.140244, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.017392, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020835, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.084613, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014945, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20501, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017322, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034003, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.397149, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1, "relative_activity": 0.002384, "balance": 2.397149, "dry_up": 3.358565, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042227, "annualized_volatility": 0.234563, "from_high_reference": -0.131545, "from_low_reference": 0.110066 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.907667, "fair_value_reference": 74.017201, "structural_low": 72.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.061652, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.021712, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.086109, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.111999, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.176126, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.242317, "worst_return": -0.07288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.204419, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.155723, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.239344, "worst_return": 0.087357, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.111204, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12253, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004277, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02303, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071276, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": 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"relative_strength": -23.328263, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.142405, "energy": 29.718159, "activity_lines": [ 76.406, 76.710182, 77.566477, 78.165592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.089996, "volume": 1456, "typical_volume": 425.8, "trend": 78.922334, "fair_value": 73.86985, "relative_strength": -22.024099, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.860409, "energy": 33.070616, "activity_lines": [ 76.467332, 76.72509, 77.465048, 78.046796 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 80.279999, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 419.45, "trend": 78.907667, "fair_value": 74.017201, "relative_strength": -20.501031, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -14.189138, "energy": 7.813323, "activity_lines": [ 77.699332, 77.362181, 77.682428, 78.134387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }