{ "ticker": { "uuid": "253aae49-830e-48a8-99e7-b499b514aa3e", "symbol": "URBN", "name": "Urban Outfitters Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.335, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.245, "architecture_energy": 30.566, "architecture_maturity": 17.701, "architecture_confidence": 65.274, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.62, "rotation_up": 47.39, "upward_expansion": 74.38, "deceleration": 57.34, "rotation_down": 26.01, "downward_expansion": 10.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.734667, 73.140727, 72.629333, 71.380903 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 76.92, "trend_reference": 70.165333, "distance_from_trend": 0.096268, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.250224, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.417874, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.166522, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.061405, "excess_performance": -0.126049, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.096268, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002129, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.417874, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014445, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051665, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.107095, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061405, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.657713, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3857610, "relative_activity": 0.655757, "balance": 0.657713, "dry_up": 0.844182, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084473, "annualized_volatility": 0.30918, "from_high_reference": -0.088085, "from_low_reference": 0.292013 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 70.165333, "fair_value_reference": 54.250224, "structural_low": 59.965, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.014245, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.01454, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.200586, "worst_return": -0.176067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.026199, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.085702, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.305168, "worst_return": -0.153653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.19238, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.042512, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.374816, "worst_return": -0.26252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.535484, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.342986, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.903044, "worst_return": -0.412493, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130515, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053933, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.242138, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.012446, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045783, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159155, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.081252, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.077781, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", 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"stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -3.845441, "energy": 4.558875, "activity_lines": [ 71.832667, 72.464909, 71.346905, 70.612925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 72.98, "volume": 6064649, "typical_volume": 6791597.15, "trend": 70.594667, "fair_value": 53.532724, "relative_strength": -7.847042, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.939558, "energy": 17.328055, "activity_lines": [ 71.725333, 72.571818, 71.667905, 70.74886 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 69.97, "volume": 5870578, "typical_volume": 6588345.95, "trend": 70.358667, "fair_value": 53.751571, "relative_strength": -9.730888, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.885138, "energy": 15.116301, "activity_lines": [ 70.882667, 72.104545, 71.669952, 70.708559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.18, "volume": 4071369, "typical_volume": 6275370.2, "trend": 70.32, "fair_value": 53.990545, "relative_strength": -4.330799, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.478802, "energy": 15.62048, "activity_lines": [ 71.873333, 72.384182, 72.04481, 70.955097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.92, "volume": 3857610, "typical_volume": 5882679.95, "trend": 70.165333, "fair_value": 54.250224, "relative_strength": -5.166522, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.245291, "energy": 30.56573, "activity_lines": [ 73.734667, 73.140727, 72.629333, 71.380903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }