{ "ticker": { "uuid": "253c3d91-4459-4ac0-921e-18ff08acb70e", "symbol": "SXLF", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Financials Select Sector UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.247, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.046, "architecture_energy": 85.419, "architecture_maturity": 16.085, "architecture_confidence": 68.296, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.51, "rotation_up": 82.18, "upward_expansion": 97.39, "deceleration": 40.93, "rotation_down": 11.3, "downward_expansion": 19.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 58.814668, 57.987455, 56.031095, 54.820753 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 59.150002, "trend_reference": 53.720667, "distance_from_trend": 0.101066, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.963398, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.208045, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.846423, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.096386, "excess_performance": -0.074506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101066, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016263, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.208045, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115384, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.058464, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085738, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.096386, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.39497, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 31214, "relative_activity": 0.74187, "balance": 3.39497, "dry_up": 0.995502, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02125, "annualized_volatility": 0.132563, "from_high_reference": -0.017605, "from_low_reference": 0.198339 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.720667, "fair_value_reference": 48.963398, "structural_low": 49.360001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.003191, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008378, "regime_survival": 0.735294, "best_return": 0.128962, "worst_return": -0.139605, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.019563, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.015914, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.193552, "worst_return": -0.108249, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.027795, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.028644, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.216521, "worst_return": -0.109176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.689266, "energy": 94.269404, "activity_lines": [ 56.851333, 55.513454, 53.965142, 53.43129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 58.709999, "volume": 52785, "typical_volume": 50563.4, "trend": 53.406667, "fair_value": 48.531539, "relative_strength": -4.025827, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.490097, "energy": 95.542242, "activity_lines": [ 57.655333, 56.290727, 54.520714, 53.781333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.779999, "volume": 31740, "typical_volume": 46419.7, "trend": 53.514, "fair_value": 48.674263, "relative_strength": -3.492146, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.483618, "energy": 93.200273, "activity_lines": [ 58.212666, 56.951636, 55.048095, 54.128 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 58.740002, "volume": 51803, "typical_volume": 42733.85, "trend": 53.638333, "fair_value": 48.817147, "relative_strength": -3.964034, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.732998, "energy": 89.315488, "activity_lines": [ 58.536667, 57.484182, 55.539523, 54.465161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.150002, "volume": 31214, "typical_volume": 42074.75, "trend": 53.720667, "fair_value": 48.963398, "relative_strength": -5.846423, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.046474, "energy": 85.418627, "activity_lines": [ 58.814668, 57.987455, 56.031095, 54.820753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }