{ "ticker": { "uuid": "253c47ca-4cff-46d7-8005-b503bacd34d6", "symbol": "BKKT", "name": "Bakkt Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.256, "architecture_energy": 45.995, "architecture_maturity": 69.76, "architecture_confidence": 88.289, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.73, "rotation_up": 13.92, "upward_expansion": 7.57, "deceleration": 42.83, "rotation_down": 62.76, "downward_expansion": 83.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.437333, 7.790364, 8.375524, 8.667742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.53, "trend_reference": 9.678667, "distance_from_trend": -0.222, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.820224, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.577446, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.937935, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.367758, "excess_performance": -0.493383, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.222, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184428, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.577446, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06625, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.489379, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094744, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.367758, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.930113, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3895594, "relative_activity": 0.563243, "balance": 0.930113, "dry_up": 0.650313, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.260595, "annualized_volatility": 0.912628, "from_high_reference": -0.848765, "from_low_reference": 0.115556 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.678667, "fair_value_reference": 17.820224, "structural_low": 6.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.036364, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.032114, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 1.721448, "worst_return": -0.215116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.021429, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.085161, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.733519, "worst_return": -0.403001, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.137484, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.142412, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.898492, "worst_return": -0.357143, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.446533, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.442878, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.59025, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.188714, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 1.106808, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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9.029524, 9.666731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 8.36, "volume": 5105127, "typical_volume": 7639861.0, "trend": 10.425, "fair_value": 18.867981, "relative_strength": -45.479728, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.303766, "energy": 29.383319, "activity_lines": [ 8.527333, 8.987091, 8.957762, 9.521376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 8.41, "volume": 4134717, "typical_volume": 7620614.7, "trend": 10.32, "fair_value": 18.630224, "relative_strength": -44.841776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.436011, "energy": 30.708102, "activity_lines": [ 8.512, 8.848364, 8.902238, 9.391376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.25, "volume": 5257917, "typical_volume": 7417171.85, "trend": 10.209667, "fair_value": 18.404263, "relative_strength": -50.432879, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.329358, "energy": 46.037781, "activity_lines": [ 8.071333, 8.501636, 8.745905, 9.193312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.44, "volume": 4233345, "typical_volume": 7268699.55, "trend": 10.106333, "fair_value": 18.190737, "relative_strength": -47.886896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.470623, "energy": 42.702918, "activity_lines": [ 7.772667, 8.236727, 8.618667, 9.014624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.17, "volume": 4604331, "typical_volume": 7220568.5, "trend": 9.970333, "fair_value": 17.999519, "relative_strength": -50.045469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.242099, "energy": 46.529826, "activity_lines": [ 7.502667, 7.938, 8.474524, 8.825183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.53, "volume": 3895594, "typical_volume": 6916361.2, "trend": 9.678667, "fair_value": 17.820224, "relative_strength": -48.937935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.256011, "energy": 45.99493, "activity_lines": [ 7.437333, 7.790364, 8.375524, 8.667742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }