{ "ticker": { "uuid": "253ce975-e069-4e04-aa20-a625488cc51e", "symbol": "MCI", "name": "Barings Corporate Investors", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.963, "architecture_energy": 61.704, "architecture_maturity": 43.843, "architecture_confidence": 85.28, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.76, "rotation_up": 12.25, "upward_expansion": 12.96, "deceleration": 38.77, "rotation_down": 68.75, "downward_expansion": 88.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.7272, 16.987418, 17.148628, 17.477459 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 16.77, "trend_reference": 18.091417, "distance_from_trend": -0.073041, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.09122, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018794, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.349203, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.163405, "excess_performance": -0.289029, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073041, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038562, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018794, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030743, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.203492, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018512, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.163405, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.322115, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 168195, "relative_activity": 0.850592, "balance": 1.322115, "dry_up": 0.724023, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045047, "annualized_volatility": 0.220778, "from_high_reference": -0.224076, "from_low_reference": 0.034823 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.091417, "fair_value_reference": 17.09122, "structural_low": 16.205672, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.015929, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.007901, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.069767, "worst_return": -0.077129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.011144, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.054127, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.065332, "worst_return": -0.086618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.056642, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.097818, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.065332, "worst_return": -0.076439, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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17.879349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.93, "volume": 159590, "typical_volume": 192532.95, "trend": 18.290056, "fair_value": 17.000081, "relative_strength": -17.806985, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.084235, "energy": 36.935212, "activity_lines": [ 17.266667, 17.374238, 17.392288, 17.788073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.55, "volume": 134143, "typical_volume": 195223.3, "trend": 18.215322, "fair_value": 17.030145, "relative_strength": -18.716328, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.435942, "energy": 54.140763, "activity_lines": [ 16.991333, 17.226786, 17.29045, 17.675812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.532, "volume": 110742, "typical_volume": 194859.5, "trend": 18.161143, "fair_value": 17.058555, "relative_strength": -19.184647, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.830269, "energy": 62.836465, "activity_lines": [ 16.79, 17.081273, 17.202612, 17.56721 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.77, "volume": 168195, "typical_volume": 197738.85, "trend": 18.091417, "fair_value": 17.09122, "relative_strength": -20.349203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.963163, "energy": 61.703961, "activity_lines": [ 16.7272, 16.987418, 17.148628, 17.477459 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }