{ "ticker": { "uuid": "254509dd-aa89-4003-95e7-4b5f7a474145", "symbol": "7782", "name": "SPEEDING ROCKET", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.381, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -11.981, "architecture_energy": 14.662, "architecture_maturity": 29.165, "architecture_confidence": 38.395, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.13, "rotation_up": 23.09, "upward_expansion": 17.52, "deceleration": 55.16, "rotation_down": 49.39, "downward_expansion": 44.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.95, 26.219091, 26.316951, 26.243722 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.799999, "trend_reference": 26.181173, "distance_from_trend": -0.014559, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.186852, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.222584, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.258522, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.014796, "excess_performance": -0.426576, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014559, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015419, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.222584, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003547, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.392585, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076056, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014796, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.368347, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50045, "relative_activity": 0.413095, "balance": 0.368347, "dry_up": 0.530946, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063655, "annualized_volatility": 0.256237, "from_high_reference": -0.409573, "from_low_reference": 0.082449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.181173, "fair_value_reference": 33.186852, "structural_low": 23.83483, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.015267, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.009619, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.04175, "worst_return": -0.061567, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.037313, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.149978, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.037313, "worst_return": -0.037313, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 33.508171, "relative_strength": -40.354608, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 4.975013, "energy": 7.302175, "activity_lines": [ 26.54, 26.435455, 26.401054, 26.310525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.450001, "volume": 15000, "typical_volume": 127498.0, "trend": 26.320495, "fair_value": 33.429747, "relative_strength": -39.075321, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.250428, "energy": 3.495905, "activity_lines": [ 26.380001, 26.45, 26.423646, 26.31576 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.1, "volume": 165020, "typical_volume": 133089.0, "trend": 26.271374, "fair_value": 33.3492, "relative_strength": -37.8023, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.562504, "energy": 7.53716, "activity_lines": [ 26.216667, 26.407273, 26.407795, 26.301535 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.799999, "volume": 27224, "typical_volume": 129647.2, "trend": 26.224716, "fair_value": 33.267144, "relative_strength": -38.587072, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.943791, "energy": 11.528826, "activity_lines": [ 26.043333, 26.314546, 26.363714, 26.271123 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 25.799999, "volume": 50045, "typical_volume": 121146.6, "trend": 26.181173, "fair_value": 33.186852, "relative_strength": -39.258522, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -11.981095, "energy": 14.661609, "activity_lines": [ 25.95, 26.219091, 26.316951, 26.243722 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }