{ "ticker": { "uuid": "254703fb-484c-4d96-b419-4f64632436bf", "symbol": "FLT", "name": "Flight Centre Travel Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 59.089, "architecture_energy": 68.747, "architecture_maturity": 17.896, "architecture_confidence": 73.802, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.52, "rotation_up": 75.68, "upward_expansion": 63.61, "deceleration": 22.24, "rotation_down": 16.91, "downward_expansion": 21.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.848, 12.456545, 11.814, 11.763457 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.65, "trend_reference": 12.147336, "distance_from_trend": 0.123703, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.63927, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.127197, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.162949, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.000803, "excess_performance": -0.064509, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.123703, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043462, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.127197, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.213509, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041629, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193255, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000803, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.000898, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5713561, "relative_activity": 1.02293, "balance": 2.000898, "dry_up": 1.217431, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0541, "annualized_volatility": 0.380312, "from_high_reference": -0.166733, "from_low_reference": 0.420395 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.147336, "fair_value_reference": 15.63927, "structural_low": 9.61, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.020149, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.005623, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.224091, "worst_return": -0.099735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.094411, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.080945, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.201577, "worst_return": -0.229872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.026044, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.008439, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.248874, "worst_return": -0.297025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -2.875581, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.149811, "energy": 23.527852, "activity_lines": [ 11.852667, 11.380727, 11.193519, 11.689816 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.18, "volume": 5269964, "typical_volume": 6288906.85, "trend": 12.456182, "fair_value": 15.851924, "relative_strength": -2.30036, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.775036, "energy": 29.032299, "activity_lines": [ 12.033333, 11.589636, 11.272365, 11.666686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.18, "volume": 6160716, "typical_volume": 5934697.3, "trend": 12.354059, "fair_value": 15.797705, "relative_strength": -2.075288, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.99808, "energy": 32.80151, "activity_lines": [ 12.137333, 11.761636, 11.359205, 11.648868 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.71, "volume": 5955537, "typical_volume": 5594483.2, "trend": 12.242204, "fair_value": 15.734078, "relative_strength": -5.42359, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.175485, "energy": 30.784494, "activity_lines": [ 12.010667, 11.822, 11.404049, 11.607316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.2, "volume": 9369964, "typical_volume": 5586723.0, "trend": 12.1876, "fair_value": 15.686158, "relative_strength": 4.045267, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.328486, "energy": 51.266512, "activity_lines": [ 12.394667, 12.127273, 11.592363, 11.669109 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.65, "volume": 5713561, "typical_volume": 5585486.95, "trend": 12.147336, "fair_value": 15.63927, "relative_strength": 4.162949, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 59.08884, "energy": 68.746589, "activity_lines": [ 12.848, 12.456545, 11.814, 11.763457 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }