{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2547f827-a47a-466c-940d-a5a728efb3ff", "symbol": "4195", "name": "GENOMICS BIOSCI & TECH CO LTD", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.791, "architecture_energy": 91.769, "architecture_maturity": 63.05, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.3, "rotation_up": 28.76, "upward_expansion": 21.97, "deceleration": 37.01, "rotation_down": 65.47, "downward_expansion": 99.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.856667, 15.476364, 16.975714, 19.12957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 14.25, "trend_reference": 21.443333, "distance_from_trend": -0.335458, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.5875, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.307832, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -56.287068, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.421907, "excess_performance": -0.767639, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.335458, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.12351, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.307832, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.197129, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.562871, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093057, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.421907, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.425024, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 488335, "relative_activity": 0.230347, "balance": 0.425024, "dry_up": 0.264092, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.087449, "annualized_volatility": 0.833684, "from_high_reference": -0.613297, "from_low_reference": 0.017857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.443333, "fair_value_reference": 20.5875, "structural_low": 14.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.008902, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.005576, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.160428, "worst_return": -0.083832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.010582, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.026125, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.044218, "worst_return": -0.091346, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.005982, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03837, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.319728, "worst_return": -0.104265, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.886867, "energy": 49.746973, "activity_lines": [ 16.64, 16.613636, 19.927143, 21.500968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.15, "volume": 482323, "typical_volume": 2368519.5, "trend": 22.86, "fair_value": 20.805645, "relative_strength": -51.298608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.189568, "energy": 53.751988, "activity_lines": [ 16.566667, 16.476364, 19.348095, 21.049785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.3, "volume": 647053, "typical_volume": 2366021.15, "trend": 22.516667, "fair_value": 20.751337, "relative_strength": -52.764183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.521373, "energy": 67.030969, "activity_lines": [ 16.18, 16.23, 18.725952, 20.562043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.35, "volume": 495000, "typical_volume": 2334752.8, "trend": 22.16, "fair_value": 20.699539, "relative_strength": -53.126029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.751002, "energy": 77.602668, "activity_lines": [ 15.803333, 16.057273, 18.151191, 20.099677 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 14.7, "volume": 609106, "typical_volume": 2239222.5, "trend": 21.826667, "fair_value": 20.642949, "relative_strength": -56.078028, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.328315, "energy": 90.08198, "activity_lines": [ 15.3, 15.788182, 17.557619, 19.618387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 14.25, "volume": 488335, "typical_volume": 2119996.7, "trend": 21.443333, "fair_value": 20.5875, "relative_strength": -56.287068, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.790927, "energy": 91.768538, "activity_lines": [ 14.856667, 15.476364, 16.975714, 19.12957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }