{ "ticker": { "uuid": "254a2f66-0af1-489c-a40b-4fd3790f91d6", "symbol": "BRIJ", "name": "Global X European Infrastructure Development UCITS ETF EUR Accumulating", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 65.333, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.806, "architecture_energy": 22.618, "architecture_maturity": 15.943, "architecture_confidence": 71.359, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.06, "rotation_up": 40.12, "upward_expansion": 63.09, "deceleration": 84.83, "rotation_down": 27.58, "downward_expansion": 14.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.7128, 18.709454, 18.687695, 18.630851 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 19.021999, "trend_reference": 18.535266, "distance_from_trend": 0.02626, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.75144, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.135544, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.90018, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037752, "excess_performance": -0.045131, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02626, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024712, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.135544, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00319, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049002, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069347, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037752, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.505818, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10, "relative_activity": 0.001648, "balance": 0.505818, "dry_up": 0.466068, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021578, "annualized_volatility": 0.16846, "from_high_reference": -0.021603, "from_low_reference": 0.141366 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.535266, "fair_value_reference": 16.75144, "structural_low": 16.964001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.008152, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.038859, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.028104, "worst_return": -0.044407, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09014, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024453, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028104, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019921, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042416, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-09-13", "close": 14.304, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-20", "close": 14.458, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-09-27", "close": 14.55, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-04", "close": 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"direction": 32.295859, "energy": 24.108782, "activity_lines": [ 18.742267, 18.712036, 18.658019, 18.580073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.247999, "volume": 9393, "typical_volume": 11384.75, "trend": 18.4294, "fair_value": 16.688619, "relative_strength": -8.030391, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.207755, "energy": 9.348261, "activity_lines": [ 18.558133, 18.637091, 18.624895, 18.570107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.52, "volume": 1186, "typical_volume": 7236.9, "trend": 18.465733, "fair_value": 16.707306, "relative_strength": -6.373306, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.266429, "energy": 13.445854, "activity_lines": [ 18.499466, 18.618836, 18.622266, 18.575953 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.806, "volume": 722, "typical_volume": 6327.3, "trend": 18.511333, "fair_value": 16.728505, "relative_strength": -4.883889, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.231346, "energy": 18.307211, "activity_lines": [ 18.574533, 18.646618, 18.646781, 18.597905 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.021999, "volume": 10, "typical_volume": 6067.25, "trend": 18.535266, "fair_value": 16.75144, "relative_strength": -4.90018, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.806442, "energy": 22.618141, "activity_lines": [ 18.7128, 18.709454, 18.687695, 18.630851 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }