{ "ticker": { "uuid": "254cbe15-6583-45f1-9683-350f08ae2924", "symbol": "DHLU", "name": "Daiwa House Logistics Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -78.28, "architecture_energy": 52.693, "architecture_maturity": 85.63, "architecture_confidence": 84.458, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.61, "rotation_up": 24.11, "upward_expansion": 6.94, "deceleration": 60.09, "rotation_down": 50.99, "downward_expansion": 75.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.479667, 0.481636, 0.485452, 0.490929 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.47, "trend_reference": 0.501462, "distance_from_trend": -0.062741, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.51067, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.079641, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.721006, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.119057, "excess_performance": -0.273892, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062741, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039014, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.079641, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041857, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.24721, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082772, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.119057, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.353106, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3581400, "relative_activity": 1.81503, "balance": 0.353106, "dry_up": 1.011446, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018822, "annualized_volatility": 0.107004, "from_high_reference": -0.171317, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.501462, "fair_value_reference": 0.51067, "structural_low": 0.47, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.005102, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.000365, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.129309, "worst_return": -0.057692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.053401, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.02402, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.216984, "worst_return": -0.08157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.038599, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.07111, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.053401, "worst_return": -0.119057, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008547, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017543, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084035, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078126, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008475, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 0.482667, 0.485364, 0.489587, 0.497524 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.485, "volume": 1016600, "typical_volume": 2383180.0, "trend": 0.507775, "fair_value": 0.510716, "relative_strength": -21.3468, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.977606, "energy": 58.429247, "activity_lines": [ 0.483, 0.485, 0.488619, 0.49593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.485, "volume": 1499200, "typical_volume": 2195885.0, "trend": 0.505837, "fair_value": 0.510768, "relative_strength": -21.948266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.356717, "energy": 49.590579, "activity_lines": [ 0.483667, 0.484727, 0.487905, 0.49446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.485, "volume": 1885900, "typical_volume": 2046515.0, "trend": 0.5039, "fair_value": 0.510771, "relative_strength": -21.955925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.19726, "energy": 41.865023, "activity_lines": [ 0.484333, 0.484545, 0.487357, 0.493116 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.47, "volume": 3581400, "typical_volume": 1973190.0, "trend": 0.501462, "fair_value": 0.51067, "relative_strength": -24.721006, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.280077, "energy": 52.692625, "activity_lines": [ 0.479667, 0.481636, 0.485452, 0.490929 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }