{ "ticker": { "uuid": "254ce323-b53d-4e5d-b063-d150f4114643", "symbol": "MLLCB", "name": "Les Constructeurs du Bois S.A.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -93.435, "architecture_energy": 91.501, "architecture_maturity": 97.36, "architecture_confidence": 86.855, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.67, "rotation_up": 14.5, "upward_expansion": 20.77, "deceleration": 37.64, "rotation_down": 75.57, "downward_expansion": 94.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.213333, 2.261818, 2.349905, 2.411699 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.02, "trend_reference": 2.5, "distance_from_trend": -0.192, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.337638, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.394782, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.942415, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.240602, "excess_performance": -0.293913, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072012, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.394782, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097327, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.319424, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.117183, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.240602, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.724698, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2292, "relative_activity": 2.420019, "balance": 0.724698, "dry_up": 1.192852, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044935, "annualized_volatility": 0.356483, "from_high_reference": -0.416185, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.5, "fair_value_reference": 3.337638, "structural_low": 2.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 33, "median_return": -0.022556, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.575758, "median_excess_return": -0.03508, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.232768, "worst_return": -0.168224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.05303, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": -0.072663, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.085741, "worst_return": -0.204819, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.073381, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.153301, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.246988, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.30142, "energy": 77.767998, "activity_lines": [ 2.309333, 2.365455, 2.434571, 2.491183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.32, "volume": 1925, "typical_volume": 964.95, "trend": 2.559333, "fair_value": 3.37659, "relative_strength": -20.691493, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.542411, "energy": 74.180108, "activity_lines": [ 2.306667, 2.348727, 2.418667, 2.475054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.32, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 925.4, "trend": 2.541333, "fair_value": 3.364587, "relative_strength": -20.40203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.256917, "energy": 71.950142, "activity_lines": [ 2.309333, 2.334545, 2.404476, 2.459613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.3, "volume": 302, "typical_volume": 906.25, "trend": 2.521333, "fair_value": 3.352456, "relative_strength": -21.546236, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.875541, "energy": 68.286524, "activity_lines": [ 2.306667, 2.321818, 2.389619, 2.444043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.02, "volume": 2292, "typical_volume": 947.1, "trend": 2.5, "fair_value": 3.337638, "relative_strength": -31.942415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.43492, "energy": 91.501455, "activity_lines": [ 2.213333, 2.261818, 2.349905, 2.411699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }