{ "ticker": { "uuid": "254d70a1-07f3-4124-85a5-5b7c7dcb0b96", "symbol": "603798", "name": "Qingdao Copton Technology Company Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.351, "architecture_energy": 71.98, "architecture_maturity": 16.801, "architecture_confidence": 82.532, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.29, "rotation_up": 9.89, "upward_expansion": 16.19, "deceleration": 37.77, "rotation_down": 71.93, "downward_expansion": 89.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.306667, 13.042981, 14.431206, 14.844749 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.7, "trend_reference": 15.393384, "distance_from_trend": -0.110007, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.239505, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218915, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.029431, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.171705, "excess_performance": -0.128501, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.110007, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036099, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218915, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.342425, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100294, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.179664, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.171705, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.947902, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44704698, "relative_activity": 1.420975, "balance": 0.947902, "dry_up": 1.037877, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134727, "annualized_volatility": 0.603578, "from_high_reference": -0.323948, "from_low_reference": 0.383838 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.393384, "fair_value_reference": 11.239505, "structural_low": 9.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.040588, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.020362, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.363636, "worst_return": -0.074646, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.028098, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.000913, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.479881, "worst_return": -0.180139, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.167687, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.049001, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.191517, "worst_return": -0.006391, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.90084, "energy": 79.722819, "activity_lines": [ 13.243174, 14.332939, 15.306751, 15.497232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.7, "volume": 33145010, "typical_volume": 30404750.0, "trend": 15.609383, "fair_value": 11.220677, "relative_strength": -20.660453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.272899, "energy": 79.121468, "activity_lines": [ 12.524667, 13.681849, 14.948268, 15.237422 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.31, "volume": 23796070, "typical_volume": 30129041.0, "trend": 15.48705, "fair_value": 11.221361, "relative_strength": -23.547658, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.829059, "energy": 83.953434, "activity_lines": [ 11.918667, 13.090285, 14.569594, 14.960042 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.7, "volume": 44704698, "typical_volume": 31460575.4, "trend": 15.393384, "fair_value": 11.239505, "relative_strength": -10.029431, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.351114, "energy": 71.980476, "activity_lines": [ 12.306667, 13.042981, 14.431206, 14.844749 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }