{ "ticker": { "uuid": "254ea75e-ce30-47dc-acbd-c5f38f56155f", "symbol": "NORAM", "name": "NorAm Drilling AS", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.577, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.948, "architecture_energy": 23.2, "architecture_maturity": 31.332, "architecture_confidence": 76.538, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.94, "rotation_up": 49.55, "upward_expansion": 58.02, "deceleration": 70.84, "rotation_down": 10.3, "downward_expansion": 15.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.228796, 42.02446, 43.353182, 43.258006 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 43.349998, "trend_reference": 41.738337, "distance_from_trend": 0.038613, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.944439, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.400898, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.191929, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.329727, "excess_performance": 0.204733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038613, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102562, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.400898, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169047, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.101919, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.281961, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.329727, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.21649, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 317838, "relative_activity": 0.848898, "balance": 1.21649, "dry_up": 0.905826, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076291, "annualized_volatility": 0.441388, "from_high_reference": -0.179357, "from_low_reference": 0.914996 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.738337, "fair_value_reference": 30.944439, "structural_low": 32.066249, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.029178, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.013564, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.037159, "worst_return": -0.048421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.053367, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052441, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.00635, "worst_return": -0.113084, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.090263, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.092196, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.090263, "worst_return": -0.090263, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077849, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.108818, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057408, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.684188, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005122, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.492014, "energy": 20.634276, "activity_lines": [ 42.495585, 44.960733, 44.946628, 42.646984 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 39.044815, "volume": 26093, "typical_volume": 435164.8, "trend": 39.579876, "fair_value": 30.588558, "relative_strength": 10.494993, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.976364, "energy": 30.317307, "activity_lines": [ 40.786819, 43.717161, 44.544898, 42.632934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 38.450974, "volume": 102453, "typical_volume": 429111.35, "trend": 39.815366, "fair_value": 30.610538, "relative_strength": 5.612627, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.755394, "energy": 46.762473, "activity_lines": [ 39.633567, 42.453778, 44.055926, 42.560102 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.281975, "volume": 355148, "typical_volume": 406652.15, "trend": 40.124609, "fair_value": 30.660247, "relative_strength": 10.422629, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.636064, "energy": 46.703913, "activity_lines": [ 39.526911, 41.667892, 43.713708, 42.590206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 41.849998, "volume": 479360, "typical_volume": 404036.3, "trend": 40.524583, "fair_value": 30.724755, "relative_strength": 12.326877, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.877829, "energy": 43.401715, "activity_lines": [ 40.164624, 41.314185, 43.508661, 42.701521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.099998, "volume": 291476, "typical_volume": 398756.35, "trend": 41.018446, "fair_value": 30.804485, "relative_strength": 17.084841, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.888982, "energy": 17.156555, "activity_lines": [ 41.979511, 41.650277, 43.594438, 42.996709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.099998, "volume": 267936, "typical_volume": 379514.0, "trend": 41.381447, "fair_value": 30.873553, "relative_strength": 10.608876, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.768672, "energy": 17.330912, "activity_lines": [ 42.69766, 41.748762, 43.459065, 43.131003 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.349998, "volume": 317838, "typical_volume": 374412.5, "trend": 41.738337, "fair_value": 30.944439, "relative_strength": 10.191929, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.948014, "energy": 23.199508, "activity_lines": [ 43.228796, 42.02446, 43.353182, 43.258006 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }