{ "ticker": { "uuid": "254f68d0-db82-4a19-a5a7-29d2d2d87125", "symbol": "CWT", "name": "Chai Watana Tannery Group Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 29.398, "architecture_energy": 29.641, "architecture_maturity": 31.441, "architecture_confidence": 41.775, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.17, "rotation_up": 49.16, "upward_expansion": 47.74, "deceleration": 49.13, "rotation_down": 25.06, "downward_expansion": 10.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.92, 0.912909, 0.855286, 0.847871 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.9, "trend_reference": 0.854333, "distance_from_trend": 0.053453, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.086923, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.171975, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.068255, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.021739, "excess_performance": -0.214064, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053453, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011951, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.171975, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.177004, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.160683, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089852, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.021739, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.668569, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4781900, "relative_activity": 0.759385, "balance": 1.668569, "dry_up": 2.310281, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092308, "annualized_volatility": 0.465848, "from_high_reference": -0.366197, "from_low_reference": 0.40625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.854333, "fair_value_reference": 1.086923, "structural_low": 0.64, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.132019, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.085654, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.042553, "worst_return": -0.17284, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.163669, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.101659, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.074074, "worst_return": -0.368984, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.269152, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.191408, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.135802, "worst_return": -0.304813, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.979012, "energy": 47.407765, "activity_lines": [ 0.913333, 0.847091, 0.814048, 0.829935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.96, "volume": 36577400, "typical_volume": 5998940.0, "trend": 0.855667, "fair_value": 1.106923, "relative_strength": -11.895055, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 35.53506, "energy": 63.703932, "activity_lines": [ 0.94, 0.876, 0.828048, 0.836516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.92, "volume": 12716100, "typical_volume": 6244440.0, "trend": 0.854, "fair_value": 1.100128, "relative_strength": -15.747906, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.102537, "energy": 57.423452, "activity_lines": [ 0.938667, 0.894182, 0.838143, 0.840667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.92, "volume": 4116600, "typical_volume": 6223055.0, "trend": 0.854333, "fair_value": 1.09359, "relative_strength": -14.795929, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.686083, "energy": 37.576039, "activity_lines": [ 0.933333, 0.907636, 0.847857, 0.844925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9, "volume": 4781900, "typical_volume": 6297070.0, "trend": 0.854333, "fair_value": 1.086923, "relative_strength": -16.068255, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.397601, "energy": 29.641262, "activity_lines": [ 0.92, 0.912909, 0.855286, 0.847871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }