{ "ticker": { "uuid": "255562b5-ecd9-48d2-be89-2eb8d271da9a", "symbol": "IBTI", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS DEC 2028 TERM TREASURY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.112, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -21.24, "architecture_energy": 9.344, "architecture_maturity": 18.928, "architecture_confidence": 65.484, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.71, "rotation_up": 23.67, "upward_expansion": 18.44, "deceleration": 36.69, "rotation_down": 32.15, "downward_expansion": 57.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.036805, 22.034283, 22.037407, 22.048823 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 22.08, "trend_reference": 22.061349, "distance_from_trend": 0.000845, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.997414, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.051558, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.345716, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.000861, "excess_performance": -0.188315, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000845, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000952, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.051558, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008765, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.123457, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038438, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.000861, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.792583, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3116493, "relative_activity": 1.5325, "balance": 0.792583, "dry_up": 1.167704, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003248, "annualized_volatility": 0.017766, "from_high_reference": -0.006192, "from_low_reference": 0.022384 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.061349, "fair_value_reference": 20.997414, "structural_low": 21.960878, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.005226, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.002675, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.029837, "worst_return": -0.03532, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.02381, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.061409, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.03134, "worst_return": -0.063544, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.029344, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.05994, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048147, "worst_return": -0.020312, 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22.059573, "fair_value": 20.935765, "relative_strength": -14.2592, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.283866, "energy": 22.228037, "activity_lines": [ 22.029929, 22.029156, 22.043426, 22.055423 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.040627, "volume": 2023564, "typical_volume": 1860015.15, "trend": 22.060718, "fair_value": 20.950787, "relative_strength": -10.025774, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.470515, "energy": 19.771672, "activity_lines": [ 22.030626, 22.031581, 22.0415, 22.0542 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.990784, "volume": 2306329, "typical_volume": 1907053.8, "trend": 22.059709, "fair_value": 20.966001, "relative_strength": -8.4759, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.667122, "energy": 38.071095, "activity_lines": [ 22.015806, 22.025237, 22.035647, 22.049689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.025674, "volume": 2052188, "typical_volume": 1936629.45, "trend": 22.059384, "fair_value": 20.981116, "relative_strength": -8.471684, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.12537, "energy": 33.938659, "activity_lines": [ 22.015041, 22.025171, 22.033839, 22.047493 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.08, "volume": 3116493, "typical_volume": 2033600.0, "trend": 22.061349, "fair_value": 20.997414, "relative_strength": -12.345716, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.239817, "energy": 9.344013, "activity_lines": [ 22.036805, 22.034283, 22.037407, 22.048823 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }