{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "255804fd-9c6e-43e0-a3d8-9e8d98a05f9f",
    "symbol": "ICLN",
    "name": "iShares Global Clean Energy ETF",
    "exchange": "MEX",
    "country": "MX",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^MXX",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 52.62,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_down",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down",
    "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -32.335,
    "architecture_energy": 68.555,
    "architecture_maturity": 11.65,
    "architecture_confidence": 71.883,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 18.08,
        "rotation_up": 14.09,
        "upward_expansion": 30.87,
        "deceleration": 49.13,
        "rotation_down": 77.73,
        "downward_expansion": 62.87
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        312.860671,
        324.574436,
        341.474621,
        340.582963
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 312.649994,
    "trend_reference": 336.410324,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.070629,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 269.669138,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.159384,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -3.569606,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.022969,
    "excess_performance": 0.031698,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.070629,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030986,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.159384,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.195572,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.035696,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.151491,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.022969,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.494081,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 9086,
      "relative_activity": 1.732548,
      "balance": 1.494081,
      "dry_up": 0.977633,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.054144,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.247402,
      "from_high_reference": -0.235399,
      "from_low_reference": 0.240942
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 336.410324,
      "fair_value_reference": 269.669138,
      "structural_low": 294.5,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.011883,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011048,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.133523,
        "worst_return": -0.061391,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.065511,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.048849,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.130129,
        "worst_return": -0.059114,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.003584,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.186669,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.015317,
        "worst_return": -0.028423,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.073241,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.026425,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.20582,
        "worst_return": -0.059339,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-01-05",
        "end": "2024-01-26",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.039962,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-02-02",
        "end": "2024-05-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.057064,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-06-07",
        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.056201,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.068328,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-10-18",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.025327,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-25",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.040738,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.024663,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-05-09",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.024253,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-05-16",
        "end": "2025-06-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.002028,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-20",
        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.234568,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-12-19",
        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.053975,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-23",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.073942,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.054382,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.007898,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "trend": 330.094226,
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "relative_strength": 5.320478,
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      },
      {
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        "typical_volume": 6410.3,
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        "fair_value": 269.270954,
        "relative_strength": 4.70159,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 7197,
        "typical_volume": 5660.1,
        "trend": 335.947324,
        "fair_value": 269.319236,
        "relative_strength": -0.152854,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -38.90509,
        "energy": 43.288729,
        "activity_lines": [
          334.190004,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 310.200012,
        "volume": 426,
        "typical_volume": 5276.35,
        "trend": 336.387324,
        "fair_value": 269.384476,
        "relative_strength": -3.366627,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -46.126262,
        "energy": 61.396134,
        "activity_lines": [
          324.414008,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 305.01001,
        "volume": 3799,
        "typical_volume": 5134.2,
        "trend": 336.321991,
        "fair_value": 269.485717,
        "relative_strength": -5.803971,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -46.449802,
        "energy": 72.605753,
        "activity_lines": [
          316.158675,
          330.446252,
          344.650525,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 312.649994,
        "volume": 9086,
        "typical_volume": 5244.3,
        "trend": 336.410324,
        "fair_value": 269.669138,
        "relative_strength": -3.569606,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -32.335125,
        "energy": 68.554539,
        "activity_lines": [
          312.860671,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}