{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25589088-ef38-40b2-9e16-695825c83b31", "symbol": "KMK", "name": "Kromek Group plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.08, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.869, "architecture_energy": 39.66, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.558, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.3, "rotation_up": 20.86, "upward_expansion": 5.5, "deceleration": 47.74, "rotation_down": 49.12, "downward_expansion": 76.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.080753, 0.081853, 0.086723, 0.091252 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.0855, "trend_reference": 0.09729, "distance_from_trend": -0.121184, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.066957, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276932, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.268902, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.109375, "excess_performance": -0.16061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.121184, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012348, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276932, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315991, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.062689, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.320309, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.109375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.530329, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6118801, "relative_activity": 1.091179, "balance": 0.530329, "dry_up": 0.881543, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14314, "annualized_volatility": 0.548041, "from_high_reference": -0.342308, "from_low_reference": 0.819149 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.09729, "fair_value_reference": 0.066957, "structural_low": 0.072, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.006149, "positive_rate": 0.464286, "directional_follow_through": 0.535714, "median_excess_return": -0.009385, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.230769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.046939, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.011819, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.47, "worst_return": -0.3, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.073252, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.096964, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.92, "worst_return": -0.435897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.25, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.310921, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.140351, "worst_return": -0.507692, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.236641, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.365385, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112782, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.975707, "energy": 38.498125, "activity_lines": [ 0.0839, 0.084718, 0.09064, 0.094865 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.08, "volume": 4368534, "typical_volume": 5733444.8, "trend": 0.098723, "fair_value": 0.066727, "relative_strength": -10.245708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.895895, "energy": 36.715128, "activity_lines": [ 0.08252, 0.083496, 0.089218, 0.09365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.074, "volume": 6132306, "typical_volume": 5533930.4, "trend": 0.09794, "fair_value": 0.066794, "relative_strength": -18.188567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.05024, "energy": 51.296469, "activity_lines": [ 0.079573, 0.081438, 0.087355, 0.092055 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.0855, "volume": 6118801, "typical_volume": 5607515.05, "trend": 0.09729, "fair_value": 0.066957, "relative_strength": -6.268902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.868952, "energy": 39.659533, "activity_lines": [ 0.080753, 0.081853, 0.086723, 0.091252 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }