{ "ticker": { "uuid": "255c0fd0-2eec-45d9-80c5-e32ca455d3eb", "symbol": "VGI", "name": "Virtus Global Multi-Sector Income Fund", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 87.509, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.152, "architecture_energy": 18.467, "architecture_maturity": 33.524, "architecture_confidence": 83.006, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.04, "rotation_up": 22.18, "upward_expansion": 7.88, "deceleration": 41.49, "rotation_down": 46.18, "downward_expansion": 71.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.302989, 7.316397, 7.327303, 7.330296 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 7.4, "trend_reference": 7.352754, "distance_from_trend": 0.006426, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.497097, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.13897, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.938859, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01525, "excess_performance": -0.140874, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006426, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001153, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.13897, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036322, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.099389, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016192, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01525, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.92308, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 269380, "relative_activity": 1.453628, "balance": 0.92308, "dry_up": 1.178275, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023001, "annualized_volatility": 0.101041, "from_high_reference": -0.0361, "from_low_reference": 0.061066 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.352754, "fair_value_reference": 6.497097, "structural_low": 6.974119, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008012, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.004414, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.046661, "worst_return": -0.06698, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.004592, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.021807, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.077391, "worst_return": -0.146441, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.048526, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.017168, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092523, "worst_return": -0.018317, "sufficient": false }, 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7.352754, "fair_value": 6.497097, "relative_strength": -9.938859, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.152092, "energy": 18.467038, "activity_lines": [ 7.302989, 7.316397, 7.327303, 7.330296 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }