{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2560741f-a7a8-4b4d-ada6-ff1775ab584c", "symbol": "RM", "name": "RM plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.48, "architecture_energy": 13.167, "architecture_maturity": 37.473, "architecture_confidence": 75.564, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.57, "rotation_up": 28.74, "upward_expansion": 16.4, "deceleration": 40.37, "rotation_down": 32.34, "downward_expansion": 61.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 97.08, 96.121818, 97.397143, 97.535269 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 98.0, "trend_reference": 98.781667, "distance_from_trend": -0.007913, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 87.811859, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.116022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.404787, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.029703, "excess_performance": -0.080938, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.007913, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045665, "read": "Falling" 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88.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.006122, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.003061, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.397059, "worst_return": -0.682752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.041179, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.089603, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.618421, "worst_return": -0.634615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.051329, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032339, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.210526, "worst_return": -0.696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-06-26", "close": 91.0, "volume": 181004, "typical_volume": 355846.65, "trend": 102.058333, "fair_value": 87.275321, "relative_strength": -16.697466, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.761488, "energy": 27.781822, "activity_lines": [ 97.9, 99.530909, 98.453333, 99.556344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 94.6, "volume": 43158, "typical_volume": 336661.35, "trend": 101.611667, "fair_value": 87.34391, "relative_strength": -14.504676, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.734165, "energy": 35.727047, "activity_lines": [ 96.0, 98.594546, 98.111667, 99.075161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 92.0, "volume": 313174, "typical_volume": 331582.85, "trend": 100.978333, "fair_value": 87.39968, "relative_strength": -15.113255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.257472, "energy": 48.554412, "activity_lines": [ 93.926667, 97.269091, 97.562381, 98.455054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 91.6, "volume": 3265772, "typical_volume": 473363.95, "trend": 100.331667, "fair_value": 87.439423, "relative_strength": -15.924741, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.641717, "energy": 64.981953, "activity_lines": [ 92.586667, 95.950909, 97.027381, 97.85 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 95.0, "volume": 1191528, "typical_volume": 499511.7, "trend": 99.731667, "fair_value": 87.509936, "relative_strength": -13.493483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.772173, "energy": 56.733786, "activity_lines": [ 93.173333, 95.374545, 96.851429, 97.506022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 101.5, "volume": 1521028, "typical_volume": 554937.5, "trend": 99.315, "fair_value": 87.629167, "relative_strength": -8.310335, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.499284, "energy": 16.476368, "activity_lines": [ 96.06, 96.052727, 97.304048, 97.620108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 98.0, "volume": 672789, "typical_volume": 566973.55, "trend": 98.781667, "fair_value": 87.811859, "relative_strength": -11.404787, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.479727, "energy": 13.166957, "activity_lines": [ 97.08, 96.121818, 97.397143, 97.535269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }