{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2566abaf-7871-4727-ac37-a3a4fa8fbd20", "symbol": "PRG", "name": "PROG Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.871, "architecture_energy": 49.032, "architecture_maturity": 66.158, "architecture_confidence": 72.077, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.06, "rotation_up": 49.42, "upward_expansion": 78.72, "deceleration": 69.9, "rotation_down": 25.12, "downward_expansion": 7.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.902667, 43.589273, 40.452039, 38.179237 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 42.85, "trend_reference": 35.887992, "distance_from_trend": 0.193993, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.83709, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.266362, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.383755, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.249779, "excess_performance": 0.124154, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.193993, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.140517, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.266362, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.17706, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.133838, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095202, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.249779, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.347868, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2906967, "relative_activity": 1.169251, "balance": 1.347868, "dry_up": 1.064862, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094423, "annualized_volatility": 0.612121, "from_high_reference": -0.102242, "from_low_reference": 0.676385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.887992, "fair_value_reference": 33.83709, "structural_low": 27.125029, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.012195, "positive_rate": 0.347826, "directional_follow_through": 0.347826, "median_excess_return": -0.03742, "regime_survival": 0.652174, "best_return": 0.164107, "worst_return": -0.186322, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.03212, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.042684, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.423561, "worst_return": -0.249867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.053916, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.098675, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.689748, "worst_return": -0.447828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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34.020734, "fair_value": 33.641704, "relative_strength": 21.934195, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.884471, "energy": 84.186819, "activity_lines": [ 43.428667, 40.630111, 37.175119, 35.737609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 46.42, "volume": 1827546, "typical_volume": 2544782.75, "trend": 34.578792, "fair_value": 33.720233, "relative_strength": 29.061634, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.072669, "energy": 88.044295, "activity_lines": [ 44.806667, 42.048541, 38.286862, 36.537562 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.71, "volume": 1849950, "typical_volume": 2501798.65, "trend": 35.02901, "fair_value": 33.750831, "relative_strength": 21.836522, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.851136, "energy": 69.396011, "activity_lines": [ 44.754667, 42.788182, 39.085607, 37.126672 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.02, "volume": 4005290, "typical_volume": 2544656.35, "trend": 35.526226, "fair_value": 33.793952, "relative_strength": 20.881322, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.676645, "energy": 57.104551, "activity_lines": [ 44.454, 43.391091, 39.862677, 37.706736 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.85, "volume": 2906967, "typical_volume": 2486178.75, "trend": 35.887992, "fair_value": 33.83709, "relative_strength": 13.383755, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.871401, "energy": 49.032155, "activity_lines": [ 43.902667, 43.589273, 40.452039, 38.179237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }