{ "ticker": { "uuid": "256d9057-71a3-4611-885f-1c017681f1b1", "symbol": "KSM-F69", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4D) MSCI AC Far East EX Japan", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.015, "architecture_energy": 67.735, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.583, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.88, "rotation_up": 29.92, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.99, "rotation_down": 56.25, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.009333, 31.385273, 806.836143, 1330.625785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.72, "trend_reference": 1917.601333, "distance_from_trend": -0.98398, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2130.025897, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985578, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.754537, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988878, "excess_performance": -1.017778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.98398, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.308707, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985578, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.366319, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987545, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.891818, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988878, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.894627, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10819, "relative_activity": 1.568323, "balance": 0.894627, "dry_up": 1.687372, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.557342, "annualized_volatility": 6.377362, "from_high_reference": -0.990163, "from_low_reference": 0.044898 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1917.601333, "fair_value_reference": 2130.025897, "structural_low": 29.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.004688, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": -0.011469, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.150391, "worst_return": -0.111634, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.002607, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.000123, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.228501, "worst_return": -0.092839, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.128755, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.02226, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.171956, "worst_return": -0.154038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 32.01, "volume": 4745, "typical_volume": 6550.75, "trend": 2260.422667, "fair_value": 2180.292821, "relative_strength": -98.791529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.683623, "energy": 89.032582, "activity_lines": [ 32.238667, 584.690545, 1487.256095, 1873.356086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.91, "volume": 18132, "typical_volume": 7187.35, "trend": 2176.919667, "fair_value": 2168.074295, "relative_strength": -98.868064, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.784755, "energy": 85.4462, "activity_lines": [ 31.459333, 363.043636, 1296.782381, 1729.452043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.21, "volume": 10069, "typical_volume": 6904.8, "trend": 2091.626667, "fair_value": 2155.280769, "relative_strength": -98.822132, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.592462, "energy": 68.851542, "activity_lines": [ 31.218667, 197.125636, 1120.618619, 1591.019161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.52, "volume": 7541, "typical_volume": 6789.7, "trend": 2006.710667, "fair_value": 2142.655897, "relative_strength": -98.750047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.11773, "energy": 68.042883, "activity_lines": [ 31.237333, 87.351091, 957.321476, 1458.109054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.72, "volume": 10819, "typical_volume": 6898.45, "trend": 1917.601333, "fair_value": 2130.025897, "relative_strength": -98.754537, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.014639, "energy": 67.73542, "activity_lines": [ 31.009333, 31.385273, 806.836143, 1330.625785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }