{ "ticker": { "uuid": "256eb638-a44a-4d11-a85d-06f6f1631d8a", "symbol": "9530", "name": "Arabian International Healthcare Holding Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.095, "architecture_energy": 83.795, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.21, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.32, "rotation_up": 8.4, "upward_expansion": 18.19, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 84.53, "downward_expansion": 96.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.952666, 19.532545, 20.048142, 20.284946 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 18.459999, "trend_reference": 20.603, "distance_from_trend": -0.104014, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.471602, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.448488, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.428193, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.154375, "excess_performance": -0.122545, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104014, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062278, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.448488, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015044, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.204282, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050776, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.154375, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.126127, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 148924, "relative_activity": 7.567969, "balance": 0.126127, "dry_up": 3.262786, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047629, "annualized_volatility": 0.260233, "from_high_reference": -0.487222, "from_low_reference": 0.048864 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.603, "fair_value_reference": 33.471602, "structural_low": 17.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.003244, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009961, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.132148, "worst_return": -0.1302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.005878, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056059, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.163043, "worst_return": -0.362388, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.001824, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.051526, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.05303, "worst_return": -0.346269, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.724734, "energy": 23.670684, "activity_lines": [ 20.596666, 20.647272, 20.715476, 20.798709 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.799999, "volume": 92125, "typical_volume": 13651.4, "trend": 20.9, "fair_value": 33.936474, "relative_strength": -21.394219, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.487913, "energy": 61.200988, "activity_lines": [ 20.002666, 20.323454, 20.533, 20.653118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.049999, "volume": 12178, "typical_volume": 13425.55, "trend": 20.782333, "fair_value": 33.789359, "relative_strength": -19.843643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.622258, "energy": 74.978126, "activity_lines": [ 19.605333, 20.066908, 20.378857, 20.533763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.17, "volume": 3596, "typical_volume": 12565.75, "trend": 20.704333, "fair_value": 33.637564, "relative_strength": -16.556512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.420256, "energy": 76.443573, "activity_lines": [ 19.344666, 19.849454, 20.244142, 20.429742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.459999, "volume": 148924, "typical_volume": 19678.2, "trend": 20.603, "fair_value": 33.471602, "relative_strength": -20.428193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.095291, "energy": 83.79475, "activity_lines": [ 18.952666, 19.532545, 20.048142, 20.284946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }