{ "ticker": { "uuid": "256ff6ca-11a0-43b9-8b39-50dcc4d3a4fa", "symbol": "600719", "name": "Dalian Thermal Power Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -20.858, "architecture_energy": 34.038, "architecture_maturity": 4.012, "architecture_confidence": 48.739, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.19, "rotation_up": 14.97, "upward_expansion": 18.92, "deceleration": 56.07, "rotation_down": 64.66, "downward_expansion": 48.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.248, 7.552364, 7.943667, 7.77714 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 7.65, "trend_reference": 7.462333, "distance_from_trend": 0.025149, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.1525, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.069556, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 10.890371, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.16085, "excess_performance": 0.204054, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025149, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079932, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.069556, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.239505, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.108904, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152358, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.16085, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.464931, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 80922893, "relative_activity": 0.601595, "balance": 2.464931, "dry_up": 0.651155, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136048, "annualized_volatility": 0.508858, "from_high_reference": -0.345034, "from_low_reference": 0.388385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.462333, "fair_value_reference": 7.1525, "structural_low": 6.18, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.032357, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.012659, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.392241, "worst_return": -0.187307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.133127, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.061552, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.663793, "worst_return": 0.020635, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004644, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.108428, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.581897, "worst_return": -0.014862, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.558386, 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"2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030159, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035549, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.08526, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067416, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013115, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.118151, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", 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-5.446324, "energy": 16.128166, "activity_lines": [ 7.659333, 8.133818, 8.133857, 7.816538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.82, "volume": 128376224, "typical_volume": 135268645.35, "trend": 7.395333, "fair_value": 7.165, "relative_strength": 2.297244, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.34476, "energy": 29.200234, "activity_lines": [ 7.274, 7.833273, 8.035762, 7.781656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.1, "volume": 69148102, "typical_volume": 135628645.1, "trend": 7.424667, "fair_value": 7.15359, "relative_strength": 5.973099, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.043516, "energy": 29.298797, "activity_lines": [ 7.122, 7.626727, 7.964333, 7.762602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.65, "volume": 80922893, "typical_volume": 134513978.75, "trend": 7.462333, "fair_value": 7.1525, "relative_strength": 10.890371, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.857774, "energy": 34.03815, "activity_lines": [ 7.248, 7.552364, 7.943667, 7.77714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }