{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "25703bfe-9bf0-41c6-b846-1857e1b184bb",
    "symbol": "MRCY",
    "name": "Mercury Systems Inc",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 31.027,
    "architecture_energy": 22.268,
    "architecture_maturity": 70.531,
    "architecture_confidence": 91.22,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 41.25,
        "rotation_up": 25.53,
        "upward_expansion": 56.52,
        "deceleration": 88.15,
        "rotation_down": 37.91,
        "downward_expansion": 22.52
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        102.77,
        106.710364,
        103.995857,
        98.934581
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 108.64,
    "trend_reference": 94.386,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.151018,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 54.068718,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 1.009295,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 11.914639,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.321655,
    "excess_performance": 0.134201,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.151018,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.142974,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.009295,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.136697,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.119146,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.061933,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.321655,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.881148,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2937309,
      "relative_activity": 0.954912,
      "balance": 0.881148,
      "dry_up": 1.0256,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.136984,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.573624,
      "from_high_reference": -0.154223,
      "from_low_reference": 1.062439
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 94.386,
      "fair_value_reference": 54.068718,
      "structural_low": 69.06,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": 0.029575,
        "positive_rate": 0.545455,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.545455,
        "median_excess_return": -0.025539,
        "regime_survival": 0.636364,
        "best_return": 0.254934,
        "worst_return": -0.198023,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.162456,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.048772,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.254633,
        "worst_return": -0.167599,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.298941,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.132924,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.390145,
        "worst_return": -0.119555,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.52201,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.38927,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 1.189565,
        "worst_return": -0.145546,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-11-17",
        "end": "2023-12-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.070968,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-12-29",
        "end": "2024-01-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.116215,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-01-19",
        "end": "2024-05-24",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.007431,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-05-31",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.141842,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.074822,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.13971,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2025-11-07",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.809233,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-11-14",
        "end": "2026-01-09",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.319407,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-01-16",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.149388,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-04-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.166348,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-10",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.055905,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-05-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.263624,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-29",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.139839,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.052,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
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        "direction": -11.339883,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "fair_value": 48.567692,
        "relative_strength": 7.343778,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 3033104.55,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "relative_strength": 23.136709,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": 27.308228,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": 21.362902,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 66.388154,
        "energy": 77.405682,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 2971814,
        "typical_volume": 3017755.4,
        "trend": 90.212667,
        "fair_value": 51.939487,
        "relative_strength": 37.099368,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 82.13939,
        "energy": 68.909827,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "volume": 2338834,
        "typical_volume": 3058148.6,
        "trend": 91.329,
        "fair_value": 52.411282,
        "relative_strength": 14.247652,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 61.345385,
        "energy": 49.434269,
        "activity_lines": [
          114.733333,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 96.08,
        "volume": 4181052,
        "typical_volume": 3168756.7,
        "trend": 92.21,
        "fair_value": 52.794487,
        "relative_strength": 5.357786,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.574062,
        "energy": 29.986334,
        "activity_lines": [
          108.241333,
          110.222364,
          101.751286,
          97.015806
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 103.27,
        "volume": 3068014,
        "typical_volume": 3156702.15,
        "trend": 93.178333,
        "fair_value": 53.220641,
        "relative_strength": 14.124632,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 38.200418,
        "energy": 23.755825,
        "activity_lines": [
          105.760667,
          109.227636,
          102.608429,
          97.729355
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 97.1,
        "volume": 2432607,
        "typical_volume": 3128358.75,
        "trend": 93.880667,
        "fair_value": 53.59859,
        "relative_strength": 6.001389,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.261123,
        "energy": 22.323763,
        "activity_lines": [
          101.932667,
          106.906727,
          102.797714,
          97.982366
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 108.64,
        "volume": 2937309,
        "typical_volume": 3075998.55,
        "trend": 94.386,
        "fair_value": 54.068718,
        "relative_strength": 11.914639,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 31.026789,
        "energy": 22.267892,
        "activity_lines": [
          102.77,
          106.710364,
          103.995857,
          98.934581
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}