{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2570740c-77c9-46ac-9130-d6c1711f0461", "symbol": "300773", "name": "Lakala Payment Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.202, "architecture_energy": 39.679, "architecture_maturity": 36.075, "architecture_confidence": 90.049, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.64, "rotation_up": 22.32, "upward_expansion": 4.97, "deceleration": 58.2, "rotation_down": 51.17, "downward_expansion": 78.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.277333, 15.32277, 16.154655, 16.719509 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.88, "trend_reference": 17.51812, "distance_from_trend": -0.09351, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.599459, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167693, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.536193, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.134661, "excess_performance": -0.14206, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.09351, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011402, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167693, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277279, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.115362, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015404, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134661, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.361017, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 270770030, "relative_activity": 1.152709, "balance": 0.361017, "dry_up": 0.98441, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099575, "annualized_volatility": 0.40993, "from_high_reference": -0.290573, "from_low_reference": 0.140805 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.51812, "fair_value_reference": 13.599459, "structural_low": 13.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.010313, "positive_rate": 0.482759, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": -0.013897, "regime_survival": 0.827586, "best_return": 0.281867, "worst_return": -0.182176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.010715, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.017445, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.702545, "worst_return": -0.215378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.057182, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.039701, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.48415, "worst_return": -0.364351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 80.325314, "activity_lines": [ 14.994857, 15.626478, 16.617417, 17.169931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.17, "volume": 266041214, "typical_volume": 269367088.65, "trend": 17.667236, "fair_value": 13.556518, "relative_strength": -19.310481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.074981, "energy": 77.228785, "activity_lines": [ 14.589333, 15.243102, 16.329435, 16.941343 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.0, "volume": 221847928, "typical_volume": 241198345.0, "trend": 17.651197, "fair_value": 13.57698, "relative_strength": -6.813455, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.260621, "energy": 54.43337, "activity_lines": [ 14.975333, 15.27228, 16.240965, 16.83378 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.88, "volume": 270770030, "typical_volume": 234898819.9, "trend": 17.51812, "fair_value": 13.599459, "relative_strength": -11.536193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.201521, "energy": 39.678676, "activity_lines": [ 15.277333, 15.32277, 16.154655, 16.719509 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }