{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2572b96c-6aff-4f33-9dba-e4d31c84d701", "symbol": "C1AG34", "name": "Conagra Brands, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.998, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 5.043, "architecture_energy": 24.285, "architecture_maturity": 37.9, "architecture_confidence": 58.07, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.76, "rotation_up": 42.73, "upward_expansion": 36.0, "deceleration": 47.32, "rotation_down": 14.05, "downward_expansion": 44.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 74.025852, 72.718067, 71.070111, 73.806648 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 74.970001, "trend_reference": 78.811879, "distance_from_trend": -0.048747, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 118.524321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.367472, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.350521, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.206702, "excess_performance": -0.149653, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.048747, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076932, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.367472, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079214, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163505, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.225497, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.206702, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.048155, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20, "relative_activity": 0.050321, "balance": 1.048155, "dry_up": 2.03925, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036841, "annualized_volatility": 0.30972, "from_high_reference": -0.268, "from_low_reference": 0.171406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 78.811879, "fair_value_reference": 118.524321, "structural_low": 64.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.007708, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.01813, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.015416, "worst_return": 0.0, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.073385, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.048388, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.186495, "worst_return": -0.039725, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.057472, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004856, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.236654, "worst_return": -0.121711, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049343, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01454, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.013817, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119517, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": 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71.184189, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 236.55, "trend": 81.146895, "fair_value": 120.385836, "relative_strength": -26.559091, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.53886, "energy": 41.328507, "activity_lines": [ 71.180761, 69.296467, 70.749443, 75.400481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 72.979912, "volume": 1664, "typical_volume": 319.75, "trend": 80.376397, "fair_value": 119.797064, "relative_strength": -21.980386, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.095634, "energy": 38.935534, "activity_lines": [ 72.185874, 70.108763, 70.565251, 74.873578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 72.811256, "volume": 1541, "typical_volume": 396.5, "trend": 79.719415, "fair_value": 119.373032, "relative_strength": -21.369116, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.789992, "energy": 32.027026, "activity_lines": [ 72.536109, 70.830577, 70.49723, 74.385505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 74.989998, "volume": 17, "typical_volume": 397.05, "trend": 79.212869, "fair_value": 118.948741, "relative_strength": -19.810935, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -2.931243, "energy": 21.125699, "activity_lines": [ 73.411173, 71.852685, 70.756138, 74.080381 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.970001, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 397.45, "trend": 78.811879, "fair_value": 118.524321, "relative_strength": -16.350521, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.043016, "energy": 24.285245, "activity_lines": [ 74.025852, 72.718067, 71.070111, 73.806648 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }