{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25734cff-287f-4d0f-a3ba-a5d933a27c4a", "symbol": "ADD", "name": "Adavale Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.366, "architecture_energy": 39.314, "architecture_maturity": 61.105, "architecture_confidence": 69.03, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.81, "rotation_up": 26.67, "upward_expansion": 10.59, "deceleration": 59.32, "rotation_down": 44.33, "downward_expansion": 66.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0364, 0.0364, 0.039805, 0.041899 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.035, "trend_reference": 0.0449, "distance_from_trend": -0.22049, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.077679, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.549431, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.587434, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.255319, "excess_performance": -0.319025, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.22049, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077397, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.549431, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024954, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.235874, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.381081, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.255319, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.959443, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2469563, "relative_activity": 0.977432, "balance": 0.959443, "dry_up": 0.676713, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140659, "annualized_volatility": 0.655384, "from_high_reference": -0.507042, "from_low_reference": 0.590909 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0449, "fair_value_reference": 0.077679, "structural_low": 0.032, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.00011, "regime_survival": 0.820513, "best_return": 0.76, "worst_return": -0.35, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.161459, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.188136, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 1.363641, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.288136, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.29593, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.529413, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2683401.05, "trend": 0.0462, "fair_value": 0.083526, "relative_strength": -6.635438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.066277, "energy": 65.475637, "activity_lines": [ 0.0368, 0.038155, 0.041871, 0.043804 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.038, "volume": 1529883, "typical_volume": 2717942.8, "trend": 0.045867, "fair_value": 0.08159, "relative_strength": -11.562346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.680007, "energy": 40.455344, "activity_lines": [ 0.0374, 0.037709, 0.041324, 0.043275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.035, "volume": 2562181, "typical_volume": 2620284.5, "trend": 0.045467, "fair_value": 0.079635, "relative_strength": -20.786686, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.104455, "energy": 38.164934, "activity_lines": [ 0.037, 0.036936, 0.040543, 0.042574 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.035, "volume": 2469563, "typical_volume": 2526583.9, "trend": 0.0449, "fair_value": 0.077679, "relative_strength": -23.587434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.366034, "energy": 39.314459, "activity_lines": [ 0.0364, 0.0364, 0.039805, 0.041899 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }