{ "ticker": { "uuid": "257d466f-d86e-402e-abf7-cec6a0240077", "symbol": "301158", "name": "Dezhou United Petroleum Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.203, "architecture_energy": 34.98, "architecture_maturity": 62.719, "architecture_confidence": 62.216, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.21, "rotation_up": 25.28, "upward_expansion": 16.63, "deceleration": 66.62, "rotation_down": 38.06, "downward_expansion": 64.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.664, 14.509636, 15.631102, 16.533046 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.8, "trend_reference": 17.462239, "distance_from_trend": -0.152457, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.012858, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137337, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.837638, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.191079, "excess_performance": -0.198478, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152457, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041921, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137337, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.448476, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.138376, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17416, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.191079, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.827531, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 45564731, "relative_activity": 1.291183, "balance": 0.827531, "dry_up": 1.632763, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.121625, "annualized_volatility": 0.58861, "from_high_reference": -0.479948, "from_low_reference": 0.27917 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.462239, "fair_value_reference": 13.012858, "structural_low": 11.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.002712, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.002749, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.19484, "worst_return": -0.142076, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.044399, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052727, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.150233, "worst_return": -0.107498, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.015863, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.098006, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.171619, "worst_return": -0.203345, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": -68.906086, "energy": 80.178698, "activity_lines": [ 14.296, 15.162511, 16.700066, 17.334344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.76, "volume": 27303368, "typical_volume": 46078398.15, "trend": 17.615797, "fair_value": 12.968245, "relative_strength": -22.939943, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.833042, "energy": 83.594772, "activity_lines": [ 13.746667, 14.517809, 16.217431, 17.013346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.72, "volume": 70548615, "typical_volume": 39696992.15, "trend": 17.603156, "fair_value": 12.987131, "relative_strength": -5.436828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.038535, "energy": 48.80914, "activity_lines": [ 14.325333, 14.547462, 16.050047, 16.891036 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.79, "volume": 87058485, "typical_volume": 37361015.6, "trend": 17.535698, "fair_value": 12.998612, "relative_strength": -9.581923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.199494, "energy": 41.224276, "activity_lines": [ 14.54, 14.492727, 15.826774, 16.709542 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.8, "volume": 45564731, "typical_volume": 35289128.3, "trend": 17.462239, "fair_value": 13.012858, "relative_strength": -13.837638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.202853, "energy": 34.980328, "activity_lines": [ 14.664, 14.509636, 15.631102, 16.533046 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }