{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2580a62c-463a-47bb-8c94-7b039de9c21d", "symbol": "000593", "name": "Delong Composite Energy Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.077, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.165, "architecture_energy": 19.052, "architecture_maturity": 66.488, "architecture_confidence": 88.957, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.94, "rotation_up": 24.66, "upward_expansion": 42.48, "deceleration": 82.52, "rotation_down": 38.05, "downward_expansion": 34.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.122666, 20.744364, 21.281524, 20.359634 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.879999, "trend_reference": 18.891333, "distance_from_trend": 0.264072, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.796859, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.714605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 62.402704, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.62449, "excess_performance": 0.61709, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.264072, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.217958, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.714605, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.753175, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.624027, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.451473, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.62449, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.289879, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 109537032, "relative_activity": 0.957293, "balance": 0.289879, "dry_up": 0.912901, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.161126, "annualized_volatility": 0.822571, "from_high_reference": -0.146838, "from_low_reference": 2.927631 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.891333, "fair_value_reference": 8.796859, "structural_low": 13.03, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.004261, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011651, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.099754, "worst_return": -0.22853, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.141451, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.069332, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.044326, "worst_return": -0.257718, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.140394, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.124145, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.056738, "worst_return": -0.374497, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031365, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061837, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011824, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 2.382943, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.158661, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 7.24, "volume": 20942742, "typical_volume": 24418794.2, "trend": 7.212, "fair_value": 6.188269, "relative_strength": -2.726213, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.204997, "energy": 32.852321, "activity_lines": [ 22.502667, 22.286364, 21.541524, 19.992237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.85, "volume": 118605029, "typical_volume": 121255015.8, "trend": 18.046667, "fair_value": 8.5575, "relative_strength": 47.850562, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.846073, "energy": 15.427566, "activity_lines": [ 21.63, 21.782727, 21.527143, 20.127785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.6, "volume": 106125412, "typical_volume": 116444428.85, "trend": 18.291, "fair_value": 8.626346, "relative_strength": 28.61976, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.955869, "energy": 8.209934, "activity_lines": [ 20.058, 20.987091, 21.278905, 20.098968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.92, "volume": 83562735, "typical_volume": 114445647.4, "trend": 18.468667, "fair_value": 8.689487, "relative_strength": 23.794313, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -8.869205, "energy": 20.506008, "activity_lines": [ 18.766, 20.175818, 20.953286, 20.010516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.879999, "volume": 109537032, "typical_volume": 114423702.6, "trend": 18.891333, "fair_value": 8.796859, "relative_strength": 62.402704, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.16458, "energy": 19.05229, "activity_lines": [ 20.122666, 20.744364, 21.281524, 20.359634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }