{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "2584c7a4-5bff-4874-a3af-28590b8269a6",
    "symbol": "GLENN",
    "name": "Glencore plc",
    "exchange": "MEX",
    "country": "MX",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^MXX",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 37.103,
    "architecture_energy": 40.636,
    "architecture_maturity": 73.873,
    "architecture_confidence": 88.703,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 47.23,
        "rotation_up": 20.9,
        "upward_expansion": 61.0,
        "deceleration": 94.0,
        "rotation_down": 34.12,
        "downward_expansion": 27.0
      },
      "activity_lines": [
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.0
    },
    "latest_close": 120.660004,
    "trend_reference": 99.644,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.210911,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 94.711669,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273972,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 28.254844,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.46994,
    "excess_performance": 0.524607,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.210911,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.192375,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.273972,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.404603,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.282548,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.392261,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.46994,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.004432,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 0.004432,
      "dry_up": 4.977937,
      "accumulation_observations": 0,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.045053,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.634233,
      "from_high_reference": -0.11766,
      "from_low_reference": 0.470835
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 99.644,
      "fair_value_reference": 94.711669,
      "structural_low": 82.084999,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.0,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.036367,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.083333,
        "worst_return": -0.281942,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": -0.060031,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.085425,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.203704,
        "worst_return": -0.257107,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.064614,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.105766,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.27974,
        "worst_return": -0.25657,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.031348,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.037989,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.190668,
        "worst_return": -0.253365,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2022-08-19",
        "end": "2022-10-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.04305,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2022-11-04",
        "end": "2022-12-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.112236,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-01-06",
        "end": "2023-02-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.016,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-02-17",
        "end": "2023-05-19",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.001821,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-05-26",
        "end": "2023-07-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2023-10-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2023-11-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-01-26",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.008213,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-05-02",
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        "return": 0.000557,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.577806,
        "energy": 59.415043,
        "activity_lines": [
          127.096002,
          129.819638,
          115.997,
          107.069344
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 120.660004,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2266.2,
        "trend": 98.358166,
        "fair_value": 94.709109,
        "relative_strength": 28.945859,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.519509,
        "energy": 45.093086,
        "activity_lines": [
          123.878003,
          128.661456,
          117.529762,
          108.591129
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 120.660004,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 2266.2,
        "trend": 99.644,
        "fair_value": 94.711669,
        "relative_strength": 28.254844,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.102794,
        "energy": 40.635586,
        "activity_lines": [
          121.73267,
          126.803457,
          118.878834,
          110.029957
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}