{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2588aa47-c942-4d72-9825-906d760456c5", "symbol": "002073", "name": "Mesnac Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.9, "architecture_energy": 40.232, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.164, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.61, "rotation_up": 27.91, "upward_expansion": 20.26, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 32.13, "downward_expansion": 65.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.55, 5.456727, 5.707362, 6.123282 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.62, "trend_reference": 6.741467, "distance_from_trend": -0.166354, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.422739, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.242867, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -28.377227, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.321256, "excess_performance": -0.328656, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166354, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13112, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.242867, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153329, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.283772, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048568, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.321256, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.526111, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74624046, "relative_activity": 0.914419, "balance": 0.526111, "dry_up": 1.027083, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066303, "annualized_volatility": 0.298294, "from_high_reference": -0.396996, "from_low_reference": 0.106299 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.741467, "fair_value_reference": 7.422739, "structural_low": 5.08, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.062215, "positive_rate": 0.631579, "directional_follow_through": 0.368421, "median_excess_return": -0.014826, "regime_survival": 0.684211, "best_return": 0.34058, "worst_return": -0.190878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.217902, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.066074, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.561955, "worst_return": -0.266926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.124804, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.123388, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.498503, "worst_return": -0.360479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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5.36, "volume": 86631182, "typical_volume": 82614047.0, "trend": 6.906134, "fair_value": 7.432651, "relative_strength": -30.86875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.56637, "energy": 62.484674, "activity_lines": [ 5.321333, 5.363259, 5.800638, 6.273084 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.79, "volume": 96131439, "typical_volume": 82183195.95, "trend": 6.8258, "fair_value": 7.427744, "relative_strength": -23.271144, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.354245, "energy": 52.354232, "activity_lines": [ 5.487333, 5.42382, 5.757333, 6.201075 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.62, "volume": 74624046, "typical_volume": 81608152.55, "trend": 6.741467, "fair_value": 7.422739, "relative_strength": -28.377227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.900479, "energy": 40.23169, "activity_lines": [ 5.55, 5.456727, 5.707362, 6.123282 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }