{ "ticker": { "uuid": "258c7bb5-c878-48f8-bcff-42cc17a25e03", "symbol": "RCL", "name": "ReadCloud Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.088, "architecture_energy": 76.802, "architecture_maturity": 52.089, "architecture_confidence": 93.04, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 14.24, "upward_expansion": 17.77, "deceleration": 38.89, "rotation_down": 69.59, "downward_expansion": 91.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.062667, 0.064509, 0.067971, 0.07112 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.063, "trend_reference": 0.076467, "distance_from_trend": -0.176112, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.079833, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.210856, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.5302, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.267442, "excess_performance": -0.331148, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176112, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14911, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.210856, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193274, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.295302, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103214, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.267442, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.374522, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 158734, "relative_activity": 1.114916, "balance": 0.374522, "dry_up": 0.988932, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070818, "annualized_volatility": 0.44312, "from_high_reference": -0.496, "from_low_reference": 0.05 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.076467, "fair_value_reference": 0.079833, "structural_low": 0.06, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.010526, "positive_rate": 0.512195, "directional_follow_through": 0.439024, "median_excess_return": 0.000356, "regime_survival": 0.829268, "best_return": 0.307703, "worst_return": -0.390003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.071201, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.104569, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.658537, "worst_return": -0.345452, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.249496, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.251994, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 1.219512, "worst_return": -0.458824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041667, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034483, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.325301, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", 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"typical_volume": 146026.65, "trend": 0.0795, "fair_value": 0.079936, "relative_strength": -29.415452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.681081, "energy": 74.757106, "activity_lines": [ 0.064667, 0.066636, 0.069871, 0.073262 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.061, "volume": 92380, "typical_volume": 137986.85, "trend": 0.0777, "fair_value": 0.079878, "relative_strength": -30.298695, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.142824, "energy": 71.919673, "activity_lines": [ 0.063133, 0.065291, 0.068776, 0.072069 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.063, "volume": 158734, "typical_volume": 142373.05, "trend": 0.076467, "fair_value": 0.079833, "relative_strength": -29.5302, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.087731, "energy": 76.802467, "activity_lines": [ 0.062667, 0.064509, 0.067971, 0.07112 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }