{ "ticker": { "uuid": "258fa64f-5406-47eb-964d-337933871d03", "symbol": "3313", "name": "Feei Cherng Develop Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.893, "architecture_energy": 71.283, "architecture_maturity": 24.932, "architecture_confidence": 79.863, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.58, "rotation_up": 9.81, "upward_expansion": 15.32, "deceleration": 37.38, "rotation_down": 72.27, "downward_expansion": 88.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.5, 11.014545, 11.32881, 11.652688 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 10.2, "trend_reference": 12.166667, "distance_from_trend": -0.161644, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.961876, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.318267, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.641535, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.224335, "excess_performance": -0.665707, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.161644, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089435, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.318267, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060484, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.486415, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003263, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.224335, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.465316, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 512537, "relative_activity": 0.59316, "balance": 1.465316, "dry_up": 0.623851, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101056, "annualized_volatility": 0.348378, "from_high_reference": -0.514286, "from_low_reference": 0.009901 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.166667, "fair_value_reference": 14.961876, "structural_low": 10.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.0033, "positive_rate": 0.423077, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008898, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.517375, "worst_return": -0.127119, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.099083, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.046033, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.221374, "worst_return": -0.133333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.045872, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.058347, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.488281, "worst_return": -0.237037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.15625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.060284, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01145, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041916, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.185751, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", 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11.730909, 11.804524, 12.085914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.2, "volume": 1101733, "typical_volume": 985070.0, "trend": 12.468333, "fair_value": 14.967645, "relative_strength": -46.967259, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.71883, "energy": 41.282616, "activity_lines": [ 11.226667, 11.461818, 11.631667, 11.929032 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.3, "volume": 215454, "typical_volume": 880716.1, "trend": 12.315, "fair_value": 14.965081, "relative_strength": -47.042182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.176331, "energy": 62.54246, "activity_lines": [ 10.81, 11.24, 11.479048, 11.78914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.2, "volume": 512537, "typical_volume": 864078.35, "trend": 12.166667, "fair_value": 14.961876, "relative_strength": -48.641535, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.89336, "energy": 71.28326, "activity_lines": [ 10.5, 11.014545, 11.32881, 11.652688 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }