{ "ticker": { "uuid": "2593f51e-73b6-4e28-9f89-3896bc127c9a", "symbol": "BQF", "name": "XMH Holdings Ltd.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 86.65, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.868, "architecture_energy": 34.518, "architecture_maturity": 58.982, "architecture_confidence": 83.891, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.63, "rotation_up": 38.1, "upward_expansion": 61.98, "deceleration": 84.46, "rotation_down": 27.5, "downward_expansion": 20.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.272, 2.276161, 2.256555, 2.183572 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.3, "trend_reference": 2.066782, "distance_from_trend": 0.112841, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.92961, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.474156, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.963416, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.321839, "excess_performance": 0.167004, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.112841, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136421, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.474156, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.4867, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059634, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.34587, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.321839, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.489519, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26700, "relative_activity": 0.275584, "balance": 0.489519, "dry_up": 0.339836, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036703, "annualized_volatility": 0.266728, "from_high_reference": -0.041667, "from_low_reference": 1.251891 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.066782, "fair_value_reference": 0.92961, "structural_low": 1.69, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.039999, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.727273, "median_excess_return": 0.003374, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.527781, "worst_return": -0.206349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.233333, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.110612, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.388888, "worst_return": -0.190476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.546834, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.412802, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.342592, "worst_return": -0.12106, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.45108, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.45021, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.939152, "worst_return": 0.341657, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.214287, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.279066, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.132075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.066669, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038461, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054054, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051282, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.014287, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041666, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"energy": 59.914671, "activity_lines": [ 2.293924, 2.284896, 2.196733, 2.095007 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.29, "volume": 31100, "typical_volume": 120315.0, "trend": 1.970449, "fair_value": 0.878113, "relative_strength": 13.813093, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.721068, "energy": 50.565611, "activity_lines": [ 2.293713, 2.28847, 2.214192, 2.117194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.25, "volume": 34000, "typical_volume": 115030.0, "trend": 1.993115, "fair_value": 0.890907, "relative_strength": 9.965964, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.081371, "energy": 43.368843, "activity_lines": [ 2.282844, 2.283016, 2.225747, 2.135229 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.21, "volume": 51400, "typical_volume": 106675.0, "trend": 2.015782, "fair_value": 0.903445, "relative_strength": 5.609501, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.401082, "energy": 38.034854, "activity_lines": [ 2.258059, 2.270326, 2.232445, 2.149222 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.29, "volume": 19600, "typical_volume": 102215.0, "trend": 2.041782, "fair_value": 0.916495, "relative_strength": 7.722977, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.106954, "energy": 34.267799, "activity_lines": [ 2.264, 2.27206, 2.245143, 2.166913 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.3, "volume": 26700, "typical_volume": 96885.0, "trend": 2.066782, "fair_value": 0.92961, "relative_strength": 5.963416, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.867551, "energy": 34.518477, "activity_lines": [ 2.272, 2.276161, 2.256555, 2.183572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }