{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25955c87-7eaf-4ece-8509-0b80c24fe494", "symbol": "CPK", "name": "Chesapeake Utilities Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.887, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.677, "architecture_energy": 67.016, "architecture_maturity": 5.911, "architecture_confidence": 66.925, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.7, "rotation_up": 74.2, "upward_expansion": 89.88, "deceleration": 42.26, "rotation_down": 8.84, "downward_expansion": 14.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 133.544, 130.637605, 128.102311, 127.806075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 133.85, "trend_reference": 127.6111, "distance_from_trend": 0.04889, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 115.435217, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.159525, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.681432, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.042303, "excess_performance": -0.083322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04889, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00015, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.159525, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060477, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066814, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04345, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042303, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.607976, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 901819, "relative_activity": 1.103565, "balance": 1.607976, "dry_up": 1.239496, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046198, "annualized_volatility": 0.175843, "from_high_reference": -0.049563, "from_low_reference": 0.130334 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 127.6111, "fair_value_reference": 115.435217, "structural_low": 118.416356, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.020224, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.021665, "regime_survival": 0.703704, "best_return": 0.109349, "worst_return": -0.091782, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.021969, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.051617, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.070235, "worst_return": -0.117882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.048634, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.062659, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.177642, "worst_return": -0.126056, 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124.69947, 125.192183, 125.937984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 133.29, "volume": 1139556, "typical_volume": 810862.45, "trend": 126.496002, "fair_value": 114.925633, "relative_strength": -3.682328, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.751664, "energy": 27.819545, "activity_lines": [ 128.622, 126.311344, 125.8713, 126.396907 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 135.78, "volume": 794035, "typical_volume": 808072.25, "trend": 126.87161, "fair_value": 115.085622, "relative_strength": -1.253717, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 45.790441, "energy": 54.648869, "activity_lines": [ 131.638, 128.237266, 126.79308, 126.995874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 132.78, "volume": 1216189, "typical_volume": 834652.0, "trend": 127.200284, "fair_value": 115.260291, "relative_strength": -4.360579, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.249891, "energy": 63.688948, "activity_lines": [ 132.642, 129.403962, 127.405294, 127.377061 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 133.85, "volume": 901819, "typical_volume": 817187.05, "trend": 127.6111, "fair_value": 115.435217, "relative_strength": -6.681432, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.67726, "energy": 67.016226, "activity_lines": [ 133.544, 130.637605, 128.102311, 127.806075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }