{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25963f5a-f114-4efb-b714-001ccd54f4ed", "symbol": "MTF-F30", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4D) S&P Technology", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.584, "architecture_energy": 67.089, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.02, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.21, "rotation_up": 29.87, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.96, "rotation_down": 53.18, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 174.046667, 174.678182, 4231.625238, 6829.559785 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 177.5, "trend_reference": 9750.013333, "distance_from_trend": -0.981795, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12291.746154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985559, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.677557, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.98691, "excess_performance": -1.01581, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.981795, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.334561, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985559, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.222972, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.986776, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.822901, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.98691, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.706531, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12058, "relative_activity": 1.137515, "balance": 0.706531, "dry_up": 1.755375, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.049577, "annualized_volatility": 6.338917, "from_high_reference": -0.989485, "from_low_reference": 0.079027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9750.013333, "fair_value_reference": 12291.746154, "structural_low": 164.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.008265, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004568, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.148309, "worst_return": -0.091713, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.005752, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.019145, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.204854, "worst_return": -0.125063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.15981, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.048098, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.208821, "worst_return": -0.12003, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 8415.8, "trend": 11687.93, "fair_value": 12548.832692, "relative_strength": -98.784847, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.665981, "energy": 89.019498, "activity_lines": [ 176.846667, 3139.312727, 7714.72, 9614.172473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 169.5, "volume": 41945, "typical_volume": 9754.15, "trend": 11209.58, "fair_value": 12484.534615, "relative_strength": -98.828138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.721184, "energy": 86.45932, "activity_lines": [ 174.593333, 1963.987273, 6745.539524, 8871.047957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 174.3, "volume": 13050, "typical_volume": 10236.45, "trend": 10721.723333, "fair_value": 12418.664744, "relative_strength": -98.796694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.23448, "energy": 68.326947, "activity_lines": [ 174.026667, 1074.089091, 5842.723333, 8159.094409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 171.2, "volume": 7377, "typical_volume": 10108.65, "trend": 10234.763333, "fair_value": 12354.698077, "relative_strength": -98.755001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.098367, "energy": 67.940086, "activity_lines": [ 172.813333, 477.912727, 5004.258095, 7478.415484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 177.5, "volume": 12058, "typical_volume": 10600.3, "trend": 9750.013333, "fair_value": 12291.746154, "relative_strength": -98.677557, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.583578, "energy": 67.089364, "activity_lines": [ 174.046667, 174.678182, 4231.625238, 6829.559785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }