{ "ticker": { "uuid": "259b7da3-faf8-4a5b-83f2-69aa37629d27", "symbol": "000034", "name": "Digital China Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.719, "architecture_energy": 27.782, "architecture_maturity": 35.691, "architecture_confidence": 80.035, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.97, "rotation_up": 17.23, "upward_expansion": 6.09, "deceleration": 46.41, "rotation_down": 54.56, "downward_expansion": 72.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.393333, 25.940364, 26.211765, 26.288406 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 25.129999, "trend_reference": 26.62039, "distance_from_trend": -0.055987, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.420972, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.029034, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.458899, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.072852, "excess_performance": -0.080252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.055987, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035681, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.029034, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.169479, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.134589, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047893, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072852, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.185313, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 225708513, "relative_activity": 1.116734, "balance": 2.185313, "dry_up": 1.53647, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136474, "annualized_volatility": 0.554638, "from_high_reference": -0.286059, "from_low_reference": 0.129438 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.62039, "fair_value_reference": 24.420972, "structural_low": 22.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.003357, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.00601, "regime_survival": 0.55, "best_return": 0.238095, "worst_return": -0.225352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.093251, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.021318, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.180112, "worst_return": -0.188547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033147, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.014863, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.259196, "worst_return": -0.096294, "sufficient": true }, 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059638, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105479, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062516, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058414, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04058, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", 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"trend": 26.826741, "fair_value": 24.291449, "relative_strength": -13.349676, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.722492, "energy": 13.571378, "activity_lines": [ 27.017334, 26.478986, 26.487194, 26.575512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.67, "volume": 417189303, "typical_volume": 198509651.3, "trend": 26.816528, "fair_value": 24.336965, "relative_strength": -6.023838, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.738181, "energy": 6.802282, "activity_lines": [ 26.880667, 26.49, 26.519055, 26.5654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.1, "volume": 253946115, "typical_volume": 198429443.85, "trend": 26.706874, "fair_value": 24.371866, "relative_strength": -13.238463, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.856114, "energy": 24.275143, "activity_lines": [ 25.881334, 26.076364, 26.310294, 26.39014 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.129999, "volume": 225708513, "typical_volume": 202114804.9, "trend": 26.62039, "fair_value": 24.420972, "relative_strength": -13.458899, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.719278, "energy": 27.782341, "activity_lines": [ 25.393333, 25.940364, 26.211765, 26.288406 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }