{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25a02011-2819-4e5e-a1f6-fac8591c20be", "symbol": "AGEN", "name": "Assicurazioni Generali S.p.A.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 89.288, "architecture_energy": 75.147, "architecture_maturity": 70.218, "architecture_confidence": 79.579, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 64.64, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 64.73, "rotation_down": 26.57, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 43.693333, 43.060182, 41.186071, 39.393046 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 45.049999, "trend_reference": 37.217154, "distance_from_trend": 0.210463, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.057028, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.665002, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.138289, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.315312, "excess_performance": 0.141065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.210463, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091728, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.665002, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175444, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.051383, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080885, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.315312, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.001129, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.001129, "dry_up": 1.115445, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025776, "annualized_volatility": 0.220396, "from_high_reference": -0.007709, "from_low_reference": 0.468484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.217154, "fair_value_reference": 27.057028, "structural_low": 30.735365, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": 0.011723, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.007564, "regime_survival": 0.711111, "best_return": 0.204711, "worst_return": -0.102072, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.070598, "positive_rate": 0.764706, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": 0.037099, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.225845, "worst_return": -0.178068, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.125095, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.055771, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.251766, "worst_return": -0.120041, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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0.911803, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.958406, "energy": 92.848757, "activity_lines": [ 42.237334, 40.821836, 38.532221, 37.156389 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 42.110001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 66.05, "trend": 35.971766, "fair_value": 26.364232, "relative_strength": 0.709961, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.529096, "energy": 88.576338, "activity_lines": [ 42.402668, 41.270948, 39.043996, 37.572314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.02, "volume": 286, "typical_volume": 80.35, "trend": 36.233306, "fair_value": 26.527763, "relative_strength": 2.4473, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.955516, "energy": 83.965401, "activity_lines": [ 42.311334, 41.599455, 39.509864, 37.962522 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 42.759998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 73.1, "trend": 36.508657, "fair_value": 26.694223, "relative_strength": 2.800375, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.719948, "energy": 69.246873, "activity_lines": [ 42.416667, 41.974182, 40.011901, 38.383599 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 43.93, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 71.6, "trend": 36.824923, "fair_value": 26.871282, "relative_strength": 5.609937, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.685973, "energy": 72.648893, "activity_lines": [ 42.914, 42.460727, 40.57212, 38.862396 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.049999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 64.1, "trend": 37.217154, "fair_value": 27.057028, "relative_strength": 5.138289, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.288401, "energy": 75.146757, "activity_lines": [ 43.693333, 43.060182, 41.186071, 39.393046 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }