{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25a515c1-5e0a-4208-b012-80c8979e8521", "symbol": "FHG", "name": "FT AlphaDEX U.S. Industrials Sector Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 76.655, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.079, "architecture_energy": 47.434, "architecture_maturity": 75.921, "architecture_confidence": 45.575, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.69, "rotation_up": 46.54, "upward_expansion": 73.48, "deceleration": 71.26, "rotation_down": 27.3, "downward_expansion": 11.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.843666, 65.826577, 64.651916, 63.800536 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 66.690002, "trend_reference": 63.116937, "distance_from_trend": 0.05661, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53.61214, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243935, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.162608, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.029346, "excess_performance": -0.091075, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.05661, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043321, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.243935, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034021, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021626, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02119, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.029346, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.408304, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2300, "relative_activity": 0.709877, "balance": 0.408304, "dry_up": 1.867284, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023942, "annualized_volatility": 0.17783, "from_high_reference": -0.014773, "from_low_reference": 0.235907 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 63.116937, "fair_value_reference": 53.61214, "structural_low": 56.986098, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.011847, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.001786, "regime_survival": 0.717949, "best_return": 0.087713, "worst_return": -0.133528, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.004285, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011239, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.180588, "worst_return": -0.092227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.081831, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.017216, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.155752, "worst_return": -0.187454, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"up", "direction": 67.497269, "energy": 86.129121, "activity_lines": [ 66.212022, 64.923555, 63.502583, 63.001949 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 64.989998, "volume": 7800, "typical_volume": 3040.0, "trend": 62.471307, "fair_value": 53.159393, "relative_strength": -2.213648, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.467504, "energy": 81.842393, "activity_lines": [ 65.938165, 65.121873, 63.744991, 63.179101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 66.18, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 2920.0, "trend": 62.733815, "fair_value": 53.312516, "relative_strength": -0.518072, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.350352, "energy": 66.950484, "activity_lines": [ 65.972952, 65.490074, 64.098489, 63.418372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.949997, "volume": 12800, "typical_volume": 3325.0, "trend": 62.982628, "fair_value": 53.456688, "relative_strength": -1.747271, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.171231, "energy": 44.21928, "activity_lines": [ 65.551332, 65.529183, 64.30781, 63.561351 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.690002, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 3240.0, "trend": 63.116937, "fair_value": 53.61214, "relative_strength": -2.162608, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.078668, "energy": 47.434108, "activity_lines": [ 65.843666, 65.826577, 64.651916, 63.800536 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }