{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25ab14c1-7b84-49b4-b614-aad10589a28b", "symbol": "NAHARINDUS", "name": "Nahar Industrial Enterprises Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.692, "architecture_energy": 44.061, "architecture_maturity": 39.809, "architecture_confidence": 65.995, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.44, "rotation_up": 44.12, "upward_expansion": 74.01, "deceleration": 70.63, "rotation_down": 26.31, "downward_expansion": 5.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 119.429999, 118.870545, 116.960999, 112.878515 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 127.720001, "trend_reference": 108.049666, "distance_from_trend": 0.182049, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 123.671347, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.032737, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 17.054554, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.203316, "excess_performance": 0.247026, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.182049, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027599, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.032737, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067959, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.170546, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079384, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.203316, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.906394, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 160101, "relative_activity": 2.182963, "balance": 1.906394, "dry_up": 0.937206, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05241, "annualized_volatility": 0.37063, "from_high_reference": -0.017538, "from_low_reference": 0.537869 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.049666, "fair_value_reference": 123.671347, "structural_low": 83.050003, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.013196, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.04118, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.345872, "worst_return": -0.151143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.086948, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.011143, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.161009, "worst_return": -0.114381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.184926, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.251117, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.337992, "worst_return": -0.412263, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.066497, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.039778, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.389908, "worst_return": -0.249146, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055886, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12362, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10873, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.139231, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.146782, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.007101, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.135928, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.086821, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022582, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", 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"energy": 53.642618, "activity_lines": [ 118.860667, 117.977636, 113.609618, 109.940602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 115.839996, "volume": 41246, "typical_volume": 75878.55, "trend": 106.911666, "fair_value": 123.71577, "relative_strength": 7.255223, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.113953, "energy": 39.829675, "activity_lines": [ 117.881332, 117.739817, 114.359571, 110.536451 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 116.639999, "volume": 43277, "typical_volume": 74261.0, "trend": 107.184, "fair_value": 123.676282, "relative_strength": 10.639595, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.222415, "energy": 31.331241, "activity_lines": [ 117.263332, 117.713272, 115.09638, 111.164085 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 113.309998, "volume": 30319, "typical_volume": 72328.8, "trend": 107.272333, "fair_value": 123.600065, "relative_strength": 4.857778, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.074216, "energy": 22.606441, "activity_lines": [ 115.731999, 116.980544, 115.400761, 111.559311 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 127.720001, "volume": 160101, "typical_volume": 73341.15, "trend": 108.049666, "fair_value": 123.671347, "relative_strength": 17.054554, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.691933, "energy": 44.061421, "activity_lines": [ 119.429999, 118.870545, 116.960999, 112.878515 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }