{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25af6d53-ea25-41cb-98a9-67d3d8ef9673", "symbol": "8601", "name": "Daiwa Securities Group Inc.", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-28", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.638, "architecture_energy": 62.737, "architecture_maturity": 70.207, "architecture_confidence": 80.296, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.03, "rotation_up": 57.89, "upward_expansion": 84.05, "deceleration": 68.33, "rotation_down": 25.62, "downward_expansion": 10.71 }, "activity_lines": [ 1818.533333, 1805.336364, 1719.252381, 1663.154328 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1863.0, "trend_reference": 1605.940625, "distance_from_trend": 0.160068, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1122.856772, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.659161, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.528007, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.157525, "excess_performance": 0.029264, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.160068, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088908, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.659161, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.206681, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.08528, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.201483, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.157525, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.26979, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25751400, "relative_activity": 1.702072, "balance": 1.26979, "dry_up": 1.419809, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042467, "annualized_volatility": 0.240687, "from_high_reference": -0.011671, "from_low_reference": 0.716226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1605.940625, "fair_value_reference": 1122.856772, "structural_low": 1369.417271, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.013169, "positive_rate": 0.648649, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": 0.029208, "regime_survival": 0.756757, "best_return": 0.186394, "worst_return": -0.144671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.058704, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": 0.007521, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.315957, "worst_return": -0.083067, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.138445, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.079362, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.419235, "worst_return": -0.169474, 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[ 1801.5, 1731.636364, 1640.28914, 1601.814596 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1818.5, "volume": 25053500, "typical_volume": 15777355.0, "trend": 1573.769373, "fair_value": 1101.264742, "relative_strength": 7.573444, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.542772, "energy": 86.390536, "activity_lines": [ 1814.6, 1758.1, 1662.590476, 1618.416984 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 1801.0, "volume": 15945900, "typical_volume": 15136275.0, "trend": 1582.956795, "fair_value": 1108.567347, "relative_strength": 1.631708, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.495064, "energy": 74.261079, "activity_lines": [ 1812.9, 1775.6, 1681.442857, 1633.077025 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 1779.0, "volume": 19172900, "typical_volume": 14756815.0, "trend": 1592.844999, "fair_value": 1115.558213, "relative_strength": 4.412232, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.212966, "energy": 60.524163, "activity_lines": [ 1801.7, 1784.736364, 1696.966667, 1645.724973 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 1863.0, "volume": 25751400, "typical_volume": 15129445.0, "trend": 1605.940625, "fair_value": 1122.856772, "relative_strength": 8.528007, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.637836, "energy": 62.736539, "activity_lines": [ 1818.533333, 1805.336364, 1719.252381, 1663.154328 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }