{ "ticker": { "uuid": "25b0029b-eac4-4cc5-a0ff-812ade0036e5", "symbol": "4530", "name": "Honyi International Company Limited", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.225, "architecture_energy": 24.068, "architecture_maturity": 34.766, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.51, "rotation_up": 21.44, "upward_expansion": 3.98, "deceleration": 47.15, "rotation_down": 44.55, "downward_expansion": 72.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.53, 25.696363, 25.788333, 26.338817 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 26.5, "trend_reference": 27.096667, "distance_from_trend": -0.02202, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.42409, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042319, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.363489, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.079861, "excess_performance": -0.521233, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02202, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047643, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015963, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.343635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062069, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.079861, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.50801, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24969, "relative_activity": 0.215714, "balance": 0.50801, "dry_up": 0.232314, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100871, "annualized_volatility": 0.35731, "from_high_reference": -0.229651, "from_low_reference": 0.147186 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.096667, "fair_value_reference": 25.42409, "structural_low": 23.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.052296, "positive_rate": 0.608696, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": 0.023301, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.15641, "worst_return": -0.109515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.012745, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055724, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.222045, "worst_return": -0.126915, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.013158, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.069615, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.181102, "worst_return": -0.154512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": -38.597694, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.364871, "energy": 24.855634, "activity_lines": [ 25.826666, 25.831818, 26.093095, 26.697891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.15, "volume": 26012, "typical_volume": 127902.0, "trend": 27.206667, "fair_value": 25.321241, "relative_strength": -38.445629, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.871186, "energy": 36.638583, "activity_lines": [ 25.116666, 25.538182, 25.842143, 26.485269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.6, "volume": 10430, "typical_volume": 121921.25, "trend": 27.163333, "fair_value": 25.375983, "relative_strength": -35.372864, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.76245, "energy": 32.608558, "activity_lines": [ 25.136666, 25.540909, 25.764286, 26.381613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 26.5, "volume": 24969, "typical_volume": 115750.55, "trend": 27.096667, "fair_value": 25.42409, "relative_strength": -34.363489, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.224533, "energy": 24.068338, "activity_lines": [ 25.53, 25.696363, 25.788333, 26.338817 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }